The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 14 of the 2023/24 English Premier League. Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
Arsenal vs. Wolves
Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 (Betfair)
Over the last twelve months, 17 of Arsenal’s 20 EPL home fixtures went over 2.5 goals. The Gunners’ last four games against Wolves went over 2.5. Wolverhampton’s last five games coming into this clash went over 2.5 goals.
Brentford vs. Luton Town
Brentford in the head-to-head at 1.50 (bet365)
Brentford have suffered back-to-back defeats against title-chasers Arsenal and Liverpool, but prior to that they had won three on the trot against Burnley, Chelsea and West Ham. Luton have gone 1-1-5 away from home this season. Luton did pick up a rare home win over Crystal Palace last week, however the visitors suffered key injuries during that game and had out-performed Luton in the expected goals metric.
Nottingham Forest vs. Everton
Draw at 3.35 (Unibet)
Over the last twelve months, 41% of Nottingham Forest’s home games resulted in a draw and 41% of Everton’s away games result in a draw. Both meetings between the two last season resulted in a stalemate. Over the last twelve months, Everton have gone 0-3-0 as the away favourite.
Newcastle vs. Man Utd
Newcastle’s injury woes have started to alleviate. Alexander Isak returned to the side last week and scored in their 4-1 win over Chelsea. This extended their home winning streak to five games. Manchester United are the masters of picking up points against weaker sides, however they have gone 1-0-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they lost this fixture 2-0 last season. Both teams will feature overseas in the Champions League midweek, however Newcastle’s game is a day before United’s. This gives them an extra 24 hours to prepare for this clash.
Chelsea vs. Brighton
Both Teams To Score: Yes at 1.65 (Betfair)
Brighton have scored in 29 successive league games but have gone 16 games without a clean sheet. Over the last twelve months 16 of Brighton’s 18 away games saw both teams score. Chelsea’s last three games all went over 4.5 goals and both teams scored in five of their last six fixtures. Both teams scored in six of the last seven meetings between Chelsea and Brighton, including the last four.
West Ham vs. Crystal Palace
West Ham in the head-to-head at 2.05 (bet365)
Both teams have injury woes. West Ham are without Michail Antonio and possibly Jarrod Bowen, however Crystal Palace’s injury headaches are worse, with key players Eberechi Eze and Cheick Doucouré now out, along with Dean Henderson, Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and possibly James Tomkins. I’ve written before about how bad Palace are in Eze’s absence, and Doucouré’s season-ending injury last week compounds the issue. Once those two players left the field last week the Palace midfield was overrun by Luton, who recorded their first home win of the season and the Eagle’s expense. This bodes terribly against much stronger opponents coming up. Crystal Palace have now lost four of their last five games. West Ham have found some form again and have recorded back-to-back victories. The Hammers have gone 6-1-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Crystal Palace have gone 2-3-9 as the away underdog.
Both Teams To Score: Yes at 1.86 (Betfair)
Both teams scored each of the last twelve meetings between West Ham and Crystal Palace. Incidentally, the last five meetings all went over 2.5 goals, four of those went over 3.5 goals and three went over 4.5. Both sides scored in three of Palace’s last four fixtures, while the same can be said for ten of West Ham’s last twelve fixtures.
Liverpool vs. Fulham
Liverpool have gone 14-2-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. They have gone 6-0-0 at home this season and all six wins were by 2+ goal margins. Across those games the Reds outscored their opponents by 17 goals to 2. Fulham rode their luck with two controversial VAR decisions to beat Wolves at home last week, but prior to that they were on a 0-1-3 run as the departure of striker Aleksandar Mitrovic continues to hurt their cause in attack. All three of Fulham’s away defeats this season were by 2+ goal margins.