The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 28 of the 2023/24 English Premier League. Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
There are only eight fixtures this round due to the League Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool.
My best bets each week are published on AusSportsTipping.com
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Man Utd vs. Everton |
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Man Utd +0.5 at 1.28 (Betfair)
Manchester United were outclassed by Manchester City last week, but they showed good fight in that fixture. They now take on an Everton side that is winless in ten games (0-5-5). Everton haven’t won at Old Trafford since 2013 and that was their only win at this venue since 1994.
Draw at 4.00 (Unibet)
Man Utd +0.5 looks to be a safe play, but there is value in the draw. Five of Everton’s last thirteen visits to Old Trafford resulted in a stalemate. Everton have gone 4-5-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Five of their last ten games resulted in a draw.
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Crystal Palace vs. Luton |
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Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 (Unibet)
Crystal Palace have Eberechi Eze back from injury and new manager Oliver Glasner has signaled his intent to play attack-minded football. Palace’s last four home games went over 2.5 goals and three of those went over 3.5. Luton’s last six games went over 2.5 goals. Five of their last six went over 3.5 and three of their last five went over 4.5. Luton’s average away game this season has seen a total of 3.8 goals.
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Arsenal vs. Brentford |
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Arsenal in the head-to-head at 1.25 (bet365)
Arsenal are in red-hot league form while Brentford can’t stop conceding goals. The Gunners have won eight EPL games in a row by a combined 31 goals to 3. Over their last four games that stat is 21 goals to 1. Brentford bring 0-1-3 form into this game and defence has been their biggest issue. Nine of the Bees’ last eleven opponents scored 2+ goals.
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Aston Villa vs. Tottenham |
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Over 2.5 goals at 1.41 (Betfair)
Aston Villa’s last six games went over 2.5 goals, four of those six went over 3.5 and their last two games went over 4.5. Tottenham’s last nine games went over 2.5 goals and six of their last eight went over 3.5 goals. Aston Villa’s average total score at home this season is 3.8 while Tottenham’s average total score away from home is also 3.8. Five of the last six meetings between Aston Villa and Tottenham went over 2.5 goals.
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West Ham vs. Burnley |
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West Ham in the head-to-head at 1.70 (Betfair)
Despite the fact that they will be involved in the Europa League during the week, I’m still prepared to back West Ham, simply because it’s a bet against Burnley. West Ham have gone 7-3-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Burnley have gone 1-3-20 this season. The Clarets bring a four-game losing streak into this clash and during that run they were outscored by 13 goals to 1. Burnley’s last six opponents all scored 2+ goals and four of those six scored 3+ goals.
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Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest |
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Brighton +0.5 at 1.25 (Betfair)
Brighton in the head-to-head at 1.79 (Betfair)
The market has overreacted to Brighton’s 3-0 away defeat to Fulham. This has seen their odds drift out from 1.57 to 1.73 at bet365. Brighton out-shot Fulham in that game and had 70% of possession, so the scoreline flattered the hosts. Brighton boast a 9-3-0 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. The Seagulls have only lost two home games out of twenty during this period. Nottingham Forest have gone 2-5-13 away from home over the last twelve months and they bring 1-1-5 form into this clash.