AFL Round 4 Betting Tips – Gather Round

The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 4 of the 2024 AFL season. Every fixture will take place in Adelaide this weekend.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $70,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Adelaide and Melbourne. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

 

Adelaide vs. Melbourne

 

I would have been loathed to bet against Adelaide at home last season, but they have made a 0-3 start to this campaign. Spanning this season and the last, the Crows have won just one of their last six games, and that win was over West Coast. Melbourne bring a three-game winning streak into this clash and they beat Port Adelaide at this venue last week. That was their fifth win in their last seven games at this venue. Over the last twelve months only one of Adelaide’s thirteen defeats was by a 40+ margin and that came away from home. I would back Melbourne 1-39 at 2.20 (Betfair).

 

Port Adelaide vs. Essendon

 

This is one of just two fixtures this weekend where the ‘home’ side genuinely is the home team. Port Adelaide have gone 10-3 at home over the last twelve months and they have won seven on the trot against Essendon. When on the road, the Bombers have been predictable for bookmakers recently. They have gone 2-0 as the away favourite and 1-7 as the away underdog. Essendon have failed to cover the line in their last five away games. The head-to-head odds for Port Adelaide are skinnier than I had hoped for, so I would back Port Adelaide 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).

 

West Coast vs. Sydney

 

Not that this game is being played in Adelaide Hills. Sydney suffered a narrow away defeat to Richmond last week, so they will be hungry to bounce back from their first loss of the season. The Swans won their last three games against West Coast by 118-26, 121-58 and 205-34 scorelines and the Eagles’ form coming into this game suggests another hammering is on the cards. All three of their defeats this season have been by 50+ point margins and the most worrying sign is the margins have been increasing: 50 in Round 1, 65 in Round 2 and 76 in Round 3. Looking back further, 18 of West Coast’s 21 defeats over the last twelve months were by 40+ margins. I would back Sydney 25+ at 1.20 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk can opt for Sydney 40+ at 1.42 (Dabble).

 

Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong

 

This should be a competitive game. Both sides have looked solid this year and their last seven meetings were settled by 1-39 points. Over the last twelve months, nine of the Bulldogs’ ten defeats were by 1-39 margins, while the same can be said for every one of Geelong’s nine defeats. I would back ‘Any Other Result’ in the Tri Bets 39.5 market. Alternatively, you can back both the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.48 (Unibet) and Geelong 1-39 at 2.38 (Unibet).

 

Gold Coast vs. GWS

 

GWS have won eleven of their last twelve games against Gold Coast and their sole defeat to the Suns during that run was by a 1-point margin. Spanning this season and the last, the Suns bring 2-5 form into this clash, compared to 7-1 for GWS. The Giants’ sole defeat during that run was by a 1-point margin to Collingwood during the Preliminary Finals. This game will be played in Adelaide Hills, which should suit GWS better than Gold Coast due to the Giants’ strong record away from home. GWS have covered the line in their last five games away from Western Sydney. Over the last twelve months, the Giants have gone 3-0 at the line as the favourite away from home. I would back GWS in the head-to-head at 1.40 (bet365).

 

Collingwood vs. Hawthorn

 

Hawthorn showed tremendous fight last week but it still resulted in a 36-point defeat to Geelong. Spanning this season and the last, this was the Hawks’ fifth straight defeat. Generally the best time to back Collingwood is on the back of a win, because their wins and losses tend to come in groups. The reigning Premiers bounced back to winning ways with an away win over Brisbane last week and the Pies boast a 14-4 record on the back of a win over the last twelve months. They suffered a shock defeat to Hawthorn in August last year, so they certainly won’t be taking the Hawks lightly. This fixture will be played at Adelaide Oval and Hawthorn have been terrible away from home recently. The Hawks have gone 1-10 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. As the listed away team they have gone 1-5 against Collingwood in recent seasons. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Dabble). Fourteen of Collingwood’s nineteen wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and Hawthorn covered the line in their last three games against the Pies, so those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).