With seven rounds to play and a genuine three-way race for the 2023/24 English Premier League title, the guessing game of picking the winner has becoming intriguing. Today I look at the main title contenders’ run into the finish.
Current Table
Arsenal have their destiny in their own hands due to a superior 9 goal difference over Liverpool. It’s noteworthy that Arsenal’s goal difference is also 11 goals superior to Manchester City’s.
Note that Tottenham and Aston Villa are still technically in the title race, but they currently sit at 951 odds with Picklebet. Both sides have conceded 1.5 goals per game this season, which is too poor a defensive record to believe they can overhaul the 11 point gap to first. Tottenham will play Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City before the season is done, while Aston Villa will play Arsenal and Liverpool, so both sides will play a crucial role in deciding the title race.
For the remaining fixture lists below, the opposition’s current table standing is shown prior to their name. The average table rank of the three sides’ remaining opponents are:
Arsenal: 8.9
Liverpool: 9.9
Man City: 11.4
Arsenal
Remaining EPL fixtures
5. Aston Villa HOME
11. Wolves AWAY
9. Chelsea HOME
4. Tottenham AWAY
12. Bournemouth HOME
6. Man Utd AWAY
15. Everton HOME
It’s worth noting that Arsenal have three away games remaining, while Liverpool and Manchester City both have four remaining away fixtures.
Arsenal’s most dangerous fixtures on paper are Tottenham away and Man Utd away. Arsenal have a terrible record at Old Trafford. From 2007 to 2024, the Gunners have only won one away fixture at this venue. Arsenal did win away against Spurs last season, however that was their first league away win against their North London rivals since 2014. Also, Spurs have changed managers since then.
The final home fixture against Everton could be fascinating if the visitors require points to stay in the division. It might actually work in Arsenal’s favour if Everton need all three points because the visitors could become susceptible on the counter if they’re forced to play expansively.
European Involvement
Bayern Munich is their opponent in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. Arsenal are currently the 1.74 favourite with a href=”https://wlincomeaccess.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_41460b_18588c_&affid=7007744&siteid=41460&adid=18588&c=” rel=”nofollow”>Picklebet to win their home leg.
Arsenal haven’t looked as impressive in the Champions League as they have the Premier League. It will be interesting to see if they can get past Bayern Munich, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their European involvement ends earlier than for Liverpool and Man City.
Liverpool
Remaining EPL fixtures
14. Crystal Palace HOME
13. Fulham AWAY
15. Everton AWAY
7. West Ham AWAY
4. Tottenham HOME
5. Aston Villa AWAY
11. Wolves HOME
Liverpool have gone 12-1-1 in their last fourteen fixtures against West Ham, however Everton looks to be tricky fixture. Liverpool won their two most recent away games against Aston Villa, however Villa’s strong home record over the last twelve months will be a concern.
European Involvement
Atalanta is their next opponent in their Europa League. Liverpool have an excellent chance to win that competition. The added workload from a deep run could hurt Liverpool’s EPL title chances, however.
Manchester City
Remaining EPL fixtures
18. Luton HOME
10. Brighton AWAY
17. Nottingham Forest AWAY
11. Wolves HOME
13. Fulham AWAY
4. Tottenham AWAY
7. West Ham HOME
On paper, away against Tottenham looks to be the toughest fixture. City have lost four consecutive away games in the Premier League against Spurs. Overall, you would have to conclude that City have an easier remaining league fixture list than Arsenal and Liverpool.
European Involvement
Real Madrid is their next opponent in the Champions League. City have the potential to win that competition. The added workload from a deep run could hurt City’s EPL title chances, however.
Performance Metrics
Based on EPL Elo Ratings with previous seasons given zero weighting, the three sides can hardly be separated, however Arsenal pull ahead slightly when you use more advanced Elo Rating methodologies.
Arsenal crucially have the best defensive record. They have only conceded 24 goals this season, compared to 30 for Liverpool and 31 for Man City. The Gunners have scored 75 goals, compared to 72 for Liverpool and 71 for Man City. Arsenal’s goal difference away from home this seasons is a whopping 26, compared to 15 for Man City and 13 for Liverpool. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 45% of their games this season, compared to 29% for both Liverpool and Man City.
Form Guide
Below are the three sides’ win-draw-loss records for their last twelve EPL fixtures:
Arsenal: 10-1-1. The only points dropped from their last eleven games was their away draw against City. Arsenal are unbeaten in 11 games.
Liverpool: 9-2-1. The points dropped came from an away defeat to Arsenal, a home draw with Man City and an away draw with Man Utd. Liverpool are unbeaten in 8 games.
Man City: 10-2-0. The only points dropped came from their home draws with Chelsea and Arsenal. Man City are unbeaten in 16 games.
Injuries
According to premierinjuries.com, Arsenal only have Jurrien Timber currently injured.
Liverpool, in contrast, have six players out. Three of those players have potential return dates of April 14. That trio includes Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota.
Man City currently have three players out, however all three have potential return dates between April 9 and April 17.
Summary Pros and Cons
The pros and cons for each side are:
Arsenal
Pros:
- Their destiny is in their own hands due to their superior goal difference over Liverpool
- Their European involvement might not last as long as City’s and Liverpool’s
- Are out of the FA Cup, which removes one major distraction
- Statistically they have been the best side in the competition, both offensively and defensively
- Only have three remaining away games, compared to four for both Liverpool and Man City
- Are currently close to full-strength in terms of injuries
Cons:
- On paper they have the toughest run of opponents to finish the season.
- It would only take one defeat for media speculation over last year’s choke to reemerge
Liverpool
Pros:
- Are out of the FA Cup, which removes one major distraction
- Have weaker opponents on paper than Arsenal to conclude the season
- Are second in the league despite having an injury-impacted season and the absence of Mohamed Salah during the Africa Cup of Nations
Cons:
- Have a longer injury list than Arsenal and Man City
- Have four remaining away fixtures, compared to three for Arsenal
- Will likely have a deep run in the Europa League, which will increase their fixture workload
Man City
Pros:
- Remain in the title race despite missing Kevin De Bruyne for much of the season
- Have the longest unbeaten streak of 16, compared to 11 for Arsenal and 8 for Liverpool
- Have the incentive to become the first side to ever win four consecutive English football titles
- Have on paper the easiest remaining Premier League fixture list out of the three sides
Cons:
- Sit a point behind Arsenal and Liverpool and have an inferior goal difference to both sides
- Have four remaining away fixtures, compared to three for Arsenal
- Will likely have a deep run in the UEFA Champions League, which will increase their fixture workload
- Will likely have a deep run in the FA Cup, which will increase their fixture workload
Current Odds
Below are the markets at the time of writings. Odds are courtesy of Picklebet.
Premier League – Winner
Manchester City – 2.50
Arsenal – 2.75
Liverpool – 3.25
Premier League – Winner without Man City
Liverpool – 1.58
Arsenal – 2.29
Who Will finish higher pairings
Man City 1.55
Liverpool 2.30
Liverpool 1.60
Arsenal 2.20
Man City 1.37
Arsenal 2.85
These markets are fascinating because if you want to back Arsenal you’re better off taking them at 2.85 to beat Man City than you are to take them at 2.75 to win the title. The former selection not only has higher odds, but it would still win if Liverpool came first, followed by Arsenal, then Man City. The likely reason for this is because a head-to-head is just a two-outcome market, while the winner market has five remaining selections. Generally, the fewer outcomes in a market, the lower the bookmaker margin.
Betting Tip
Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all have a genuine chance to win this year’s title. If I had to pick one team to put a line through, it would be Liverpool. They have dropped more points in recent rounds than the other two candidates and their defensive record is notably worse than Arsenal’s.
Arsenal have everything pointing to them to win, until you read the fixtures list. They will have to overcome their terrible away records against both Tottenham and Man Utd if they are to win the title.
Against Man City is their heavy fixture schedule, however they do boost enviable squad depth. Also against City is they have to pick up at least one more point than Liverpool and two more points than Arsenal in the final seven games.
Due to their easier fixture list for the next five rounds, my strategy would be to back:
Manchester City to win the title at 2.50 (Picklebet)
I would then consider a lay bet against Man City with Betfair to lock in a profit prior to their away fixture against Tottenham in the penultimate round.
I wouldn’t dissuade anyone who does want to back Arsenal. Just remember to back them in the head-to-head market against City at 2.85 (Picklebet), rather than in the tournament winner market at 2.75.