AFL Round 5 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 5 of the 2024 AFL season.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Melbourne and Brisbane. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

 

Melbourne vs. Brisbane

 

Melbourne have made a 4-1 start to the season, while Brisbane have started 1-3. Since 2015, Brisbane have gone 1-16 at the MCG and since 2023, Melbourne boast the league’s best 13-4 record at the ‘G. Six of Melbourne’s home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins, while seven of Brisbane’s eight defeats were by the same margin. I would back Melbourne 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble).

 

Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon

 

Bookmakers have a good track record of predicting Essendon’s games. Over the last decade the Bombers have gone 5-2 as the favourite against the Western Bulldogs and 3-9 as the underdog. Over the last twelve months Essendon has gone 5-0 as the favourite and 5-13 as the underdog. The Bombers have lost and failed to cover the line in their last three clashes against the Western Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have won nine of their last ten clashes against Essendon. I would back the Western Bulldogs in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Bet Right).

 

GWS vs. St Kilda

 

GWS have won eight of their last nine games, spanning this season and the last. Their sole defeat was a 1-point loss to Collingwood in the Preliminary Finals. The Giants have gone 7-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. St Kilda have been well predicted by bookmakers as the away side recently. The Saints have gone 6-1 as the away favourite and 1-6 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Twelve of St Kilda’s thirteen defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and their two defeats this season were by 8 and 4 point margins. I would back GWS 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble).

 

Carlton vs. Adelaide

 

Carlton have made a 4-0 start to the season, while Adelaide are 0-4. They now face off at Marvel Stadium, a venue where the Crows have gone 0-4 in the head-to-head and 1-3 at the line since 2021. Three of Carlton’s four wins this season were by 10 points or less, while 13 of Adelaide’s 14 defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. I would back Carlton 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble).

 

Port Adelaide vs. Fremantle

 

Port Adelaide have gone 11-3 at home over the last twelve months and they have won six on the trot at home against Fremantle. Five of those six wins were by 40+ margins. Ten of Fremantle’s twelve defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, however, so I will steer clear of the winning margin and simply back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.38 (Betfair).

 

West Coast vs. Richmond

 

The market might have overreacted to West Coast’s surprisingly competitive performance against Sydney. They have lost every other game by a 50+ margin this year and they now take on a Richmond side that is desperate for a win following their second single digit defeat of the season. I would back Richmond in the head-to-head at 1.40 (Betfair).