AFL Round 7 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 7 of the 2024 AFL season.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Melbourne and Brisbane. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

 

Richmond vs. Melbourne

 

This is primarily a bet against the under-strength Richmond. The Tigers lost by 39 points to West Coast prior to their bye last week. They are 1-5 for the season and they now take on the 4-2 Melbourne, who will be looking to bounce back from their home defeat to Brisbane. Melbourne have won four in a row against Richmond and the Demons won this clash by a 32-point margin last season. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.20 (Betfair). Nine of Melbourne’s last ten wins over Richmond were by 1-39 points, twelve of Melbourne’s 16 wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and all five of Richmond’s home defeats over this period were by the same margin. Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 1-39 at 2.10 (bet365).

 

Port Adelaide vs. St Kilda

 

St Kilda have performed to bookmaker’s expectations away from home recently. The Saints have gone 5-1 as the away favourite over the last twelve months and 1-6 as the away underdog. St Kilda have lost six of their last eight away games against Port Adelaide and over the last decade the Saints have gone 1-8 as the underdog against the Power. Port Adelaide have won and covered the line in their last four games against St Kilda. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.33 (Betfair). Six of St Kilda’s seven away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins, so those looking for more risk should consider Port Adelaide 1-39 at 2.02 (Dabble).

 

North Melbourne vs. Adelaide

 

As bad as Adelaide’s start to the season has been, they look far stronger than the winless North Melbourne, who fell by a 45-point margin to Hawthorn last week. The Kangaroos have gone 1-22 over the last twelve months and they have lost five in a row to Adelaide. North Melbourne have failed to cover the line in their last five games while Adelaide have gone 7-4 at the line away from home over the last twelve months. I would back Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.22 (Betfair).

 

Geelong vs. Carlton

 

On paper this is the best game of the round. The 1st placed Geelong are the only unbeaten side in the competition, while Carlton are 5-1 and they enter this game fresh off their win over the previously unbeaten GWS. Geelong have covered the line in five consecutive games, while Carlton have covered the line in their last five games as the listed away side. I will cop out of picking a winner and will instead back a competitive contest. Both teams have lost nine times over the last twelve months and not one of those defeats was by more than 39. Their meeting last year was settled by 8 points. I would back both Geelong 1-39 at 2.33 (bet365) and Carlton 1-39 at 2.55 (Unibet).