The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 12 of the 2024 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Port Adelaide and Carlton. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Hawthorn vs. Adelaide |
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This on paper looks to be a competitive contest. Interestingly, it’s at a venue that both sides have struggled at in recent years. Hawthorn have gone 3-11 at the MCG since 2023, while Adelaide have not won here since 2017. Both sides bring decent form into this clash. Hawthorn have gone 4-2 over their last six, while Adelaide have gone 4-1-2 over their last seven. The Crows will take encouragement from the fact that their last visit to the MCG resulted in only a 4-point defeat to reigning champions Collingwood. With the dataset I have that goes back to 2009, Hawthorn have never lost by 40+ to Adelaide, while the Crows have yet to suffer a 40+ defeat over the last twelve months. Narrowing it down further, 11 of Adelaide’s 13 defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 margins. I would place 0.4 units on Hawthorn 1-24 at 3.65 (Unibet) and 0.6 units on Adelaide 1-39 at 2.25 (BoomBet).
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West Coast vs. St Kilda |
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West Coast are a Jekyll and Hyde team, depending on whether they’re home or away. The Eagles suffered a 37-103 away defeat against Collingwood in Round 9 and then followed it up with a 105-70 home win over Melbourne. A week after that the Eagles were beaten by a 99-point margin away against Adelaide. Will they now do to St Kilda what they did to Melbourne? Looking back further, West Coast have won three of their last four home games and they now find themselves in the unfamiliar territory of being the bookmaker’s favourite. St Kilda won this clash by an 8-point margin last year, but it feels like West Coast have made a step in the right direction since then, while the Saints have taken a backward step. St Kilda limp into this fixture in 1-6 form. West Coast have yet to beat a team by 40+ this season and the Saints haven’t suffered a 40+ defeat away from home over the last twelve months. If I were to bet on this game I would take West Coast 1-39 at 2.25 (BoomBet).
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Gold Coast vs. Essendon |
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Gold Coast are another Jekyll and Hyde team, depending on whether they’re home or away. The Suns have gone 6-1 at home this season and over the last twelve months they have gone 7-0 in the head-to-head as the home favourite and 6-1 at the line as the home favourite. Gold Coast have won and covered the line in their last four home fixtures. Essendon bring 6-1-0 form into this clash, but it wasn’t a tough fixture schedule. The Bombers have gone 0-1-2 as the away underdog against the Suns and they have failed to cover the line in their last two fixtures. I would back Gold Coast in the head-to-head at 1.68 (bet365).