# EPL Futures Betting Tips Derived From Opta Analyst’s Predictions

Every year, Opta Analyst publishes its Premier League table predictions. To use their words, “We tasked the AI-powered Opta supercomputer with simulating the 2024-25 Premier League season 10,000 times to see how it believed the campaign may pan out.” Their model calculates the probability that each team will finish in each position on the table. Those probabilities are used to generate a predicted final table, as shown below.

Using these probabilities we can derive the implied fair odds for a range of futures markets.

For example, the model gives Liverpool a 5.1% chance of 1st, 29.6% chance of 2nd, 40.2% chance of 3rd and a 14.0% chance of finishing 4th. If we sum these probabilities, the model implies that Liverpool has an 88.9% chance of a top-4 finish. If we divide 1 by 88.9%, we get the implied fair decimal odds of 1.12 for Liverpool to finish in the top 4. You can currently get 1.61 odds for Liverpool in the top 4 market with Betfair, which is far in excess of 1.12, so Opta’s model suggests that backing Liverpool to make the top 4 is a good value bet.

Basically, if the model’s fair odds are below the market odds, the model implies that the current market odds are good value.

Conversely, if the model’s fair odds are above the market odds, the model implies that the current market odds are poor value.

Below is a table of the implied fair odds for a range of popular futures markets. Orange cells indicate that, according to the model, there is some value for the selection at the current odds, while green cells indicate that the there is strong value at the current odds.

### Teams that Opta Likes

The most notable outcome is that Opta Analyst rates the fair odds for Man City to win the title to be just 1.22. This implies that the current 2.74 odds at Betfair is excellent value. Opta doesn’t tell us much about the workings of their model, however they do state that potential points deductions are not factored in. The huge contrast between 1.22 and 2.74, we can only presume, comes down to the 101 outstanding charges against Man City for breaching financial fair play rules, and the possible points deduction that could be imposed this season.

As referenced earlier, Opta gives Liverpool an excellent chance of making the top 4 and top 6:
Top 4: Fair 1.12, compared to 1.61 (Betfair)
Top 6: Fair 1.02, compared to 1.24 (Betfair)

The model also rates Crystal Palace highly:
Top 4: Fair 18.52, compared to 26.00 (bet365)
Top 6: Fair 4.98, compared to 13.00 (bet365)
Top 10: Fair 1.65, compared to 2.37 (bet365)

Fulham (4.50), Everton (5.00) and Brentford (5.00) also are implied to be good value in the top 10 market with bet365.

In the Not to be Relegated market, the results imply that Everton is the best value, with fair odds of 1.10, compared to 1.30 currently at bet365.

### Teams that Opta Dislikes

Man Utd, Aston Villa and Southampton are teams that Opta Analyst doesn’t rate as highly as the market does.

The model implies that there’s value in backing Man Utd at 9.00 (bet365) and Aston Villa at 4.33 (bet365) to finish in the bottom half of the table.

The team that the model dislikes the most is Southampton. It implies that the fair odds for Southampton to be relegated should be 1.50, in contrast to 2.10 currently with bet365. It also implies that the fair odds for the Saints to finish bottom is 3.50, in contrast to 7.00 with bet365.

### Conclusions

The results are interesting, but they must be taken with a grain of salt. The model’s internal workings aren’t made public. All we know is the model simulates the season 10,000 times using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. To use their words, it “doesn’t factor in potential points deductions, a long-term injury to a star striker and it certainly doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict managerial changes.”

The best approach is to blend in the results from Opta’s model with your own formulated opinions. For example, in our EPL 2024/25 Season Preview, one of our recommendations is to back Southampton to be relegated. Our conclusion matches up nicely with Opta’s prediction.