The following are betting tips for Round 9 of the 2025 AFL season.
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St Kilda vs. Carlton |
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Carlton have gone 7-1 in the first half this season, which is the best record in the league, compared to 4-4 for St Kilda. Seven of Carlton’s eight games have gone under the total this season (160.4 average) and their last three games against St Kilda went under the total (142, 127 & 150). St Kilda enter this fixture on the back of a 127-point game. The full time result could go either way, so I have opted for St Kilda to win for the value. I will take the SGM below at 12.00 (bet365):
– Carlton 1st half winner
– St Kilda match winner
– Under 180.0 total points
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Essendon vs. Sydney |
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Sydney have gone 5-1 at the line as the away favourite over the last twelve months and in recent years they have gone 4-1 in the head-to-head as the away favourite against Essendon. The Swans won six of the last seven clashes against the Bombers, including the last three. Four of Essendon’s five home defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and the same can be said for four of their last home defeats against Sydney. I would back Sydney 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).
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Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide |
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I opted for the total score market in the Queensland derby last week and I’m going to do the same for the South Australian derby. For rivalry games I put more emphasis on head-to-head stats than general form. The last two meetings between Port Adelaide and Adelaide saw 126 and 138 total points. Seven of the last nine meetings went below 177.5. I would back Under 185.5 at 1.52 (bet365).
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Geelong vs. GWS |
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Four of the Giants’ five away games this season went under the total (145.8 average) and their last three fixtures against Geelong went under the total. The Giants’ last seven visits to GMHBA Stadium averaged 154.7 points and none of their last twelve clashes against Geelong went over 178 (153.0 average). I would back Under 184.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
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North Melbourne vs. Brisbane |
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North Melbourne’s average total score as the home side this season is 203.5, while Brisbane’s average total score away from home is 195.5 (in stark contrast to their home stats). Since 2023, the average total score at Ninja Stadium (Bellerive Oval) is 190.8. The Sunday forecast at the time for writing for Hobart is partly cloudy with light winds. I would back Over 166.5 at 1.50 (bet365).