The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 4 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are usually published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika |
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Chiefs 13+ at 1.25 (bet365)
Chiefs -26.5 at 1.91 (bet365)
This bet is primarily one against Moana Pasifika, who have an atrocious record in Hamilton. Their previous three visits resulted in ever-worse results: 45-12, 68-12 and 85-7. Moana Pasifika limp into this fixture having lost 52-10 to the Hurricanes and 19-35 at home to the Force – a side with an atrocious away record. All seven of Moana Pasifika’s previous seven defeats to the Chiefs were by 13+ margins and all seven of their defeats over the last twelve months were by 13+ margins. Moana Pasifika have a 1-6 line record against the Chiefs. The hosts enter this game on the back of a loss, but the Chiefs have gone 5-0 on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months.
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Waratahs vs. Hurricanes |
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Waratahs +1.5 at 1.91 (bet365)
Waratahs 1-12 a 3.40 (Dabble)
The Waratahs come into this fixture fresh off a bye. Prior to that they thrashed the Reds 36-12 and the Fijian Drua 36-13. The Hurricanes have won their last four visits to Sydney, however they failed to cover the line in their last three wins and two of them were by 4 points or less. Over the last twelve months the Hurricanes have gone 0-4 at the line as the away favourite, while the Waratahs have gone 5-2 at the line at home. The Hurricanes have suffered five defeats over the last twelve months, but none of them were by 13+ margins.
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Blues vs. Crusaders |
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Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.67 (Dabble)
The Blues have gone 1-6 as the underdog and 0-2 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. The Crusaders have gone 7-1 away from home, both in the head-to-head and the line, over the same period. With the dataset I have at hand, the Crusaders have won 11 of their past 15 visits to Auckland. The Blues lost this clash 19-42 last season.
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Brumbies vs. Reds |
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Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.44 (bet365)
The Brumbies have gone 6-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while the Reds have gone 1-4 as the away underdog. The Reds have gone 0-5 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. They have lost five in a row to the Brumbies and they failed to cover the line in their last four defeats. Looking at longer-term data, the Brumbies have won 13 of their last 17 home fixtures against the Reds.