The following are betting tips for Round 11 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have a $60,000 fantasy sports contest for the Geelong v Western Bulldogs clash on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs |
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This is a clash of two strong sides and like the bookmakers, I see little between them. I will take the value and back the slight underdogs in the Bulldogs. They have won their last two visits to GMHBA Stadium and they boast a plucky 3-2 record as the away underdog over the last twelve months. The Western Bulldogs thrashed Essendon by 91 points last week and the Bombers had entered that game in 5-1 form. Geelong have only lost one home game by 40+ over the last twelve months, while five of the Bulldogs’ last six away wins were by 1-39, so I will back the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.65 (Dabble).
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Essendon vs. Richmond |
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Essendon are in 5-2 form and should win this, but they have gone 0-9 at the line as the bookmaker’s favourite over the last twelve months. To look back at a similar-strength opponent, Essendon beat North Melbourne by 3 points at the beginning of May. Richmond have gone 4-2 at the line at the MCG this season, while Essendon have gone 0-3 both in the head-to-head and the line at this venue. I am wary, though, that eight of Richmond’s last ten defeats as the ‘away’ side were by 25+ margins. Rather than take on the line, I will back Essendon 1-39 at 2.25 (Dabble). All nine of Essendon’s wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and seven of those nine were by 1-24. Nine of Essendon’s last ten wins over Richmond were by 1-39.
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Carlton vs. GWS |
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This is another game that looks like a coin toss. I will take the marginal favourite this time and back Carlton. The Blues are in 4-2 form, compared to 1-4 for GWS. In recent years, Carlton have gone 4-1 as the home favourite against the Giants. This game will be played at Marvel Stadium, where the Giants have gone 0-2 both in the head-to-head and the line since 2024. GWS have suffered 11 defeats over the last twelve months and every one of them was by a 1-39 margin. Five of their last seven defeats to Carlton were by 1-39 margins. I would back Carlton 1-39 at 2.40 (Dabble).
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North Melbourne vs. Collingwood |
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Collingwood are the deserved favourite, but North Melbourne appeal at the line. In the last four rounds the Kangaroos have lost by 9, lost by 3, drawn and won by 4. Going back to 2018, none of Collingwood’s last seven wins over North Melbourne were by more than 35 points. Last season’s win was by just a 1-point margin. The Pies aren’t known for large margins of victory recently. Ten of their fourteen wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. I would back North Melbourne +45.5 at 1.52 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.40 (Dabble).
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Adelaide vs. West Coast |
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West Coast have gone 1-11 away from home over the last twelve months and nine of those defeats were by 25+ margins. Over the same period, six of Adelaide’s eight home wins were by 25+. Six of the Eagles’ last seven away defeats to Adelaide were by 25+. West Coast have lost five games in a row to Adelaide and they failed to cover the line in their last four meetings. I would back Adelaide 25+ at 1.26 (Dabble).