The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2025 State of Origin Series.
2025 State of Origin Schedule
Game 1 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
QLD 6-18 NSW
Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
Wednesday, 18 June, 6:05 PM AWST / 8:05 PM AEST
Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 9 July, 8:05 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2005. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD 3-0 |
NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth) |
NSW 26-20 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2020 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-18 QLD (Adelaide) |
NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 20-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2021 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 6-50 NSW (Townsville) |
QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 20-18 NSW (Gold Coast) |
| 2022 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth) |
QLD 22-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2023 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Adelaide) |
QLD 32-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 24-10 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2024 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 10-38 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 38-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
QLD 4-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2025 | TBD | QLD 6-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD v NSW (Perth) |
NSW v QLD (Sydney) |
2025 State of Origin Game 2 Squads
Queensland
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Valentine Holmes, 5. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 6. Cameron Munster (c), 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Moeaki Fotuaika, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Trent Loiero
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Patrick Carrigan
18th man: Ezra Mam
Coach: Billy Slater
Coach Billy Slater has responded to Queensland’s Game 1 home defeat by dropping captain and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans in favour of Tom Dearden. Cameron Munster has been handed the captaincy.
In a backline switch, Valentine Holmes has swapped places with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will start on the wing, ostensibly to counter the threat of Zac Lomax.
In the forwards, Kurt Capewell has been recalled into the second row, with Jeremiah Nanai dropping to the bench and Beau Fermor dropping out of the squad. Trent Loiero gets the nod at lock, with Patrick Carrigan starting from the bench.
32-year old utility back Kurt Mann has been promoted from 18th man and will make his Origin debut from the bench.
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Max King, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Isaah Yeo (c)
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson, 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Stefano Utoikamanu
18th man: Matt Burton
Coach: Laurie Daley
Blues coach Laurie Daley has only made injury-enforced changes to the Game 1 squad.
Mitchell Moses has been ruled out – quite possibly for Game 3 as well – with a calf strain. Jarome Luai has been flown into the Blues’ camp and will replace him at five-eighth.
Max King has been promoted to the starting lineup after Mitchell Barnett picked up a season-ending knee injury. Haumole Olakau’atu was expected to be named, but he withdrew from contention due to the upcoming birth of his child. Stefano Utoikamanu returns to the Blues bench after his stalled introduction to Origin footy in 2023.
Optus Stadium Stats
Optus Stadium previously hosted Game 2 in 2019 and 2022. The Blues won 38-6 in 2019 after having lost Game 1 in Brisbane. The Blues won 44-12 in 2022 after having lost Game 1 in Sydney.
In recent years, neutral venues have seen higher scores than games in Sydney and Brisbane. Since 2015 the average total scores are:
Sydney: 32.7
Brisbane: 32.8
Neutral: 44.3 (seven games)
Since 2022 the average total scores are:
Sydney: 36.0
Brisbane: 28.0
Neutral: 52.0 (three games)
Three of the last five games on neutral soil were blowout wins for NSW (32, 32 and 20-point margins) – all in Game 2, while the other two were close Game 1 wins for Queensland (4 and 8-point margins).
Game 2 Stats
The State of Origin is well known for swings in fortune towards the loser of the previous game. Since 2011, the loser of Game 1 has a 9-5 record in Game 2. Since 2015, the loser of Game 1 has a 4-0 record in Game 2’s that were played on neutral soil.
New South Wales has dominated Game 2 in recent years. The Blues have won just two of the last seven Game 1s, but they have won six of the last seven Game 2s. The Blues recorded a Game 1 win in 2025. The last two times they achieved this were in 2021 and 2018. In both of those years they then won Game 2, albeit by smaller winning margins.
Weather forecast
At the time of writing the Perth weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 12
Max: 21
95% chance of any rain
Possible rainfall: 8 to 30 mm
“Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.”
Bookmaker promotions
Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).
Draftstars have a $30,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 2. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Futures Betting
For those looking to bet on the series market, the last 14 series were all won by a 2-1 scoreline.
The winner of Game 1 has won the series 2-1 in 10 of the last 14 years. For this reason we like the NSW 2-1 QLD correct series score odds of 2.40 (bet365). For those of you who fancy Queensland, there’s definitely value at backing the Maroons to win the series 2-1 at 8.00 (bet365).
Game 2 Betting
Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 2.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 2 are:
QLD: 3.15 (Betfair)
NSW: 1.45 (Dabble)
The even-odds lines are currently set at 7.5 with most bookmakers.
New South Wales won Game 1 by a 12-point margin, but Queenslanders can take heart in the fact that in six of the last eight Origin series, there was an 18+ point swing towards the loser of Game 1. Last year was a classic example of how quickly fortunes can change. Queensland won Game 1 in Sydney by 28 points, only for NSW to win Game 2 in Melbourne by 20 points.
The downside for Queensland is that many of those point swings were in the Blues’ favour after they lost Game 1. I’m also wary of how strong the Blues have been on neutral soil. Since 2015, NSW have gone 4-0 for Game 2’s played in neutral territory and the last three results were one-sided:
2019: NSW 38-6 QLD (Perth)
2022: NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth)
2024: NSW 38-18 QLD (Melbourne)
Another factor in the Blues’ favour is this year’s Game 1 margin wasn’t reflective of how dominant they actually were. The Blues arguably should have won by a much higher margin, so a swing in performances could still see them be the superior side.
I’m also fearful that Queensland coach Billy Slater has made changes for the sake of changes, like dropping captain Daly Cherry-Evans and relegating Jeremiah Nanai to the bench. You could also argue he didn’t make some changes that he should have, like dropping Valentine Holmes.
I would back NSW in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Dabble).
Total Score
The total with most bookmakers has been set at 40.5.
Game 1 was a low-scoring affair, with just 24 points scored. From 2015-2024, six Game 1’s saw 32 points or less. All six of those series saw higher scores in Game 2, with five of the six going 42 or higher.
Another indicator towards a higher score is the venue. The previous two games at Optus Stadium saw 44 and 56 total points. The most recent meeting on neutral soil was in Melbourne last year, which saw 56 points. Optus Stadium has an average NRL total score of 48.0. To put that number into context, the average totals at Accor Stadium and Suncorp Stadium since 2015 are 40.7 and 45.2, respectively.
The only dampener on the total score, literally, is the weather. A late shower is forecast for Tuesday and showers are expected on Wednesday. The BOM is forecasting 8-30mm on Wednesday, while weatherzone predicts 5-10mm.
Given the damp conditions, I will shave some points off my total pick. Five of the last six Game 2’s went 38+, so I would back Over 36.5 at 1.55 (bet365).
Anytime Try Scorer
I will play the scenario of a dominant Blues win. The leading candidates for Blues’ try scorers are:
Zac Lomax at 1.80 (bet365) – five tries in his last four Origins (scored in three of four)
Brian To’o at 1.90 (BoomBet) – four tries in his last five Origins (scored in three of five)
Dylan Edwards at 3.10 (bet365) – two tries in three Origins (scored in two of three)
All three of these players scored in the Blues’ dominant Game 2 win last year in Melbourne. Lomax and To’o each scored twice in that game. The last time the two sides met in Perth, six Blues players recorded tries.
Same-game Multi
If we create the scenario of a dominant Blues win, combined with the higher scoring stats at Optus Stadium, some candidate SGMs are:
NSW to win / over 36.5 at 2.10 (bet365)
NSW 13+ / over 40.5 at 4.50 (bet365)
NSW 13+ / over 40.5 / Lomax anytime try scorer at 6.50 (bet365)
NSW 13+ / over 44.5 / Lomax & To’o & Edwards anytime try scorers at 26.00 (bet365)
Best Bet
Given the uncertainty over how wet the conditions will be at the time of writing, I will opt out of total score wagers and simply nominate the head-to-head market as my best pick:
NSW in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Dabble).