The following are betting tips for the final of the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season.
To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Compare Super Rugby odds
View the Super Rugby form guide
 |
Crusaders vs. Chiefs |
 |
The Crusaders matched the Chiefs with an 11-3 regular season record, so there’s little to split between the two sides. This is apparent in the odds. Some bookmakers have the Crusaders as the marginal favourite, while others have the Chiefs as the shorter side. At the time of writing the best available head-to-head odds are:
Crusaders at 2.00 (Betfair)
Chiefs at 1.95 (bet365)
The Chiefs topped the regular season standings, but their defeat at the hands of the Blues in the qualifying finals means they will play this game in Christchurch rather than in Hamilton. The Chiefs will be hoping for a more competitive showing in this year’s final after they were thrashed 41-10 by the Blues at Eden Park this time last year. There’s an element of revenge in this year’s final. The Chiefs lost the 2023 final at home 20-25 to the Crusaders.
A key talking point this week is the Crusaders’ 31-0 home record in Super Rugby playoffs. The Blues tried to use this as a psychological tool last week, but without success.
Since the launch of Super Rugby, the host of the final boasts a 23-8 record. Six of the eight away victories were by the Crusaders. The Bulls (v Sharks) and Highlanders (v Hurricanes) are the only other franchises to ever win a Super Rugby title away from home. The home side’s record looks vastly different when you remove finals against international opponents. When you isolate all-domestic Super Rugby finals, the home side has a mediocre 7-6 record. Again, it should be pointed out that four of the six away domestic victories were by the Crusaders.
The Crusaders have lost twice to the Chiefs already this year. This includes by a 19-35 margin at home in early May. The Chiefs came back from a 16-point deficit to secure that win. The Crusaders have tidied up their home defence since then, however. The last three visitors to Apollo Projects Stadium scored just 12, 12 and 14 points. The Crusaders also have All Blacks winger Will Jordan back after he limped off with a knee injury in the first half of their home defeat to the Chiefs. Jordan scored twice against the Blues last week.
Last season’s 51 total points in the final was an anomaly. The average total score in a Super Rugby final between two sides from the same country is 38.1. Nine of the thirteen previous domestic finals went below 40 total points.
The Crusaders have made the final on the back of their defence. Both the Chiefs and the Crusaders recently played the Blues – who are of a comparable strength – in the last two weeks and the total scores in those games were 39 and 35 points, respectively. With defence likely to decide this contest, a similarly low-scoring game wouldn’t surprise me.
I would back Under 54.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Under 49.5 at 1.91 (bet365).