The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin Series.
2025 State of Origin Schedule
Game 1 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
QLD 6-18 NSW (2–14 halftime)
Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
QLD 26-24 NSW (26-6 halftime)
Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 9 July, 8:05 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2005. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD 3-0 |
NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth) |
NSW 26-20 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2020 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-18 QLD (Adelaide) |
NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 20-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2021 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 6-50 NSW (Townsville) |
QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 20-18 NSW (Gold Coast) |
| 2022 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth) |
QLD 22-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2023 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Adelaide) |
QLD 32-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 24-10 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2024 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 10-38 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 38-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
QLD 4-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2025 | TBD | QLD 6-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 26-24 NSW (Perth) |
NSW v QLD (Sydney) |
2025 State of Origin Game 3 Squads
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Max King, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Isaah Yeo (c)
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson, 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Stefano Utoikamanu
18th man: Matt Burton
Coach: Laurie Daley
Blues coach Laurie Daley has resisted the urge to make changes to the Blues 17 from Game 2. New South Wales scored the last four tries in Game 2, which might be why Daley felt there was no need to tinker with the squad.
Queensland
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Gehamat Shibasaki, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Cameron Munster (c), 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Josh Papali’i, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Trent Loiero
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Patrick Carrigan, 17. Jeremiah Nanai
18th man: Reece Walsh
Coach: Billy Slater
Fullback Kalyn Ponga is out injured, so Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifts to fullback (the position at which he plays for the Dolphins), Valentine Holmes shifts back to the wing and Gehamat Shibasaki will make his Origin debut in the centres. Shibasaki has scored 12 tries in 15 games for the Broncos this season.
Prop Josh Papali’i a the surprise inclusion after he was convinced to come out of representative retirement to play in Game 3. The 33-year old last played Origin footy in 2023.
Accor Stadium Stats
The Blues have won four of their last six at Accor Stadium, however the Maroons have won two of the last three.
The total scores in Sydney have picked up in recent years. The average total score from 2011-18 was 23.5, however the total since then has averaged 39.6. Three of the last five games at Accor Stadium went over 43.5.
Game 3 Stats
Points Swings:
The State of Origin is well known for point swings towards the loser of the previous game. Since 2011, the loser of Game 1 went 10-5 in Game 2 and the loser of Game 2 went 10-4 in Game 3.
Since 2006, for a game-deciding Game 3, the relative scores were more in the favour of the loser of Game 2 (e.g. they lost by six points in Game 2 and then lost Game 3 by less than six), in ten out of eleven occasions. Of those ten swings towards the loser of Game 2, all ten were by 5+ points. The average points swing was 25.1 and the median was 23.0!
Only five of the last nine Game 3 deciders were won by the loser of Game 2, so those points swings don’t always translate into wins for the Game 2 loser. New South Wales only lost Game 2 by two points, however, so a 5+ points swing would be enough to secure them a win on Wednesday.
Queensland Dominance:
Queensland have won 11 of the last 15 Game 3’s. They have also won 9 of the last 11 Game 3 deciders. Queensland have won 3 of the last 4 deciders at Accor Stadium.
The good news for the Blues is they won the last two Game 3’s, they won the last three Game 3’s that were played at Accor Stadium and they won the most recent Game 3 decider at Accor Stadium.
Total Scores:
In terms of total scores, seven of the last nine Game 3’s had a total score that was less than Game 2. At the same time, nine of the last fourteen Game 3s had a total score that was above Game 1.
Since 2015, the average Game 3 total score is 32.7. Seven of those nine games went under 34.5.
Four of the last five Game 3 deciders went below 34.5 (32.0 average).
Winning Margins:
Since 2019 there have been four Game 3’s that were still a live series. Two of those games were won by 6 points and the other two were won by 10 points.
Laurie Daley’s History
Laurie Daley was previously at the helm of the Blues from 2013-17. He will be hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself. NSW have a 0-3 record in Game 3 series-deciders under Daley.
2013: NSW won Game 1, QLD won Game 2, QLD won Game 3
2014: NSW won Game 1, NSW won Game 2, QLD won Game 3
2015: QLD won Game 1, NSW won Game 2, QLD won Game 3
2016: QLD won Game 1, QLD won Game 2, NSW won Game 3.
2017: NSW won Game 1, QLD won Game 2, QLD won Game 3
Weather forecast
At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 9
Max: 20
10% chance of any rain
“Partly cloudy. The chance of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds.”
Bookmaker promotions
Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).
Draftstars have a $30,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 3. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Game 3 Betting
Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 3.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:
NSW: 1.40 (next2go)
QLD: 3.10 (PlayUp)
In the Blues favour:
- They dominated Game 1 and scored 5 tries to Queensland’s 4 in Game 2.
- The Blues lost Game 2 by just two points, despite a 10-2 penalty count against them.
- They bring good momentum into the game, having won the second half 18-0 in Game 2.
- Ten of the last eleven Origin deciders had a points swing towards the loser of Game 2.
- The Blues have gone 3-0 in Game 3’s played in Sydney since 2016.
In the Maroons’ favour:
- Blues coach Laurie Daley has a 0-3 record in Game 3 deciders. He has chosen not to tinker with the squad that failed to win Game 2.
- The Blues have only converted two out of nine tries so far this series, while Queensland have converted four out of five.
- Game 2 showed that despite having the less impressive squad on paper, Queensland continues to be more than the sum of its parts.
- Josh Papali’i’s surprise return for Queensland is a morale booster.
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will play in his preferred fullback position. He brings season-best try scoring form into this game, with eight tries scored in his last four NRL appearances.
- Queensland won nine of the last eleven Game 3 deciders. They also won three of the last four deciders at Accor Stadium.
If I had to pick a winner, I would take the Blues, but there isn’t currently enough value to take them at the prevailing odds.
Line
The line has been set at 7.5 or 8.5, depending on the bookmaker.
A key number is 10. The last four Game 3 deciders were settled by 6-10 points and you have to go back to 2005 for the last time that Queensland lost a Game 3 decider by more than 10 points.
If I were to bet on the line I would take Queensland +10.5 at 1.57 (bet365).
Total Score
The total with most bookmakers has been set at 42.5.
Game 1 was a low-scoring affair, with just 24 points scored. From 2015-2024, six Game 1’s saw 32 points or less and all six saw higher scores in Game 2, with five of the six going 42 or higher. Game 2 at Optus Stadium continued that trend, with Game 2 seeing 50 total points.
Seven of the last nine Game 3’s saw lower totals than Game 2 and the last 16 games at Accor Stadium went under 48.5, so that’s the high end of where I’m looking. Since 2004 there have been six Game 3s played in Sydney and they averaged 33.5 total points with a range of 22-46.
I will tack on some points to the official total and then go under it.
I would back Under 48.5 at 1.40 (bet365)
Anytime Try Scorer
The leading value candidates for Blues’ try scorers are:
Brian To’o at 1.77 (bet365) – 6 tries in his last 4 Origins (scored in 3 of 4)
Zac Lomax at 1.77 (bet365) – 5 tries in his 5 five Origins (scored in 3 of 5)
Dylan Edwards at 3.00 (bet365) – 2 tries in his last 4 Origins (scored in 2 of 4)
The leading candidate for Maroons try scorer is:
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at 2.40 (bet365) – 11 tries in 9 Origins, including two in Game 2, plus three in Sydney last year. The spanner in the works, however, is he will be playing at fullback rather than on the wing in Game 3. Will that reduce his opportunities? He’s in scintillating try-scoring form at the fullback position for the Dolphins, with eight tries scored in his last four games, so I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.
Same-game Multi
Based on recent trends, the same-game multis that hold appeal are:
Queensland +10.5 / Under 48.5 at 2.10 (bet365)
Queensland +10.5 / Under 48.5 / Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime try scorer at 4.75 (bet365)
Queensland +10.5 / Under 48.5 / Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow & Brian To’o anytime try scorer at 11.00 (bet365)
Best Bet
I’ve gone 2 for 2 in predicting the total score this series, so my best bet is:
Under 48.5 at 1.40 (bet365)
My second best pick is the SGM:
Queensland +10.5 / Under 48.5 at 2.10 (bet365)