The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 19 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have a $50,000 fantasy sports contest for the Essendon v GWS clash on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Essendon vs. GWS |
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The injury-hit Essendon hit a new low in their 46-37 defeat to Richmond last week. The Bombers have now lost six consecutive games and they failed to cover the line in their last four. Three of their last four defeats were by 25+ margins, with only Richmond failing to beat them by such a margin. GWS, in contrast, have won four in a row. Only Brisbane and Collingwood boast better away records than GWS this season. The Giants won and covered the line in their last four away games. The visitors are one of five teams sitting on 44 points, so if they’re well on top in this game, they may push to boost their percentage. Essendon, meanwhile, have no hope of making the playoffs.
I would back GWS in the head-to-head at 1.09 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider GWS 25+ at 1.33 (Dabble).
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Brisbane vs. Western Bulldogs |
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The Western Bulldogs are this season’s flat-track bullies. They are 9-0 against sides currently outside the top 8 and 1-7 against teams currently in the top 8. Another key statistic for the Bulldogs is their total scores. They average 180.8 total points at home and 198.0 total points away this season. Their away stat in particular stands out, given the next highest figure is Geelong, with 181.3. Seven of the Western Bulldogs’ eight away games this season went over the total as a result. Looking at both home and away games, the Bulldogs’ last seven games went over the total. Brisbane’s last two home games went over the total and four of their last six home fixtures against the Bulldogs went over the total. I don’t expect a blowout on Friday. All eight of the Lions’ home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and six of those were by 1-24 margins. All nine of the Western Bulldogs’ defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and seven of those were by 1-24 margins. Based on the above I like the following plays:
Brisbane 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble)
Brisbane 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble)
Over 164.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
SGM: Brisbane 1-39 & Over 158.5 at 3.20 (Dabble)
SGM: Brisbane 1-24 & Over 158.5 at 4.60 (Dabble)
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Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide |
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This game is being played at UTAS Stadium, where Hawthorn have won nine in a row. The Hawks have gone 9-1 in the head-to-head and 7-3 at the line as the home side over the last twelve months. Port Adelaide have a 2-5 away record this season. Only West Coast and Richmond have worse away records. Five of the Power’s six away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins, while seven of Hawthorn’s nine home wins were by 25+.
I would back Hawthorn in the head-to-head at 1.22 (Dabble). This selection is as low as 1.17 with other bookmakers at the time of writing.
Those looking for more risk should consider Hawthorn 25+ at 1.75 (Dabble). This selection is as low as 1.64 with other bookmakers at the time of writing.
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Sydney vs. North Melbourne |
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Errol Gulden’s return from injury has given Sydney a shot in the arm. They have now won four of their last five. North Melbourne have lost four of their last five and they have lost nine in a row to Sydney. The Kangaroos have gone 1-9 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. All seven of Sydney’s home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins (five were by 1-24), while six of North Melbourne’s nine away defeats were by 1-39. In the head-to-head, five of North Melbourne’s last seven away defeats to Sydney were by 1-39.
I would back Sydney 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble).
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Geelong vs. St Kilda |
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Geelong have won nine in a row as the home side against St Kilda. At GMHBA Stadium, the Cats have won twelve in a row against the Saints – a streak that started in 2000. Geelong bring 6-2 form into this game, compared to 1-8 form for St Kilda. The last four meetings between the two sides were competitive affairs and the Saints actually won three of them, so I will bet against a blowout. St Kilda covered the line in their last four games against Geelong.
I would back Geelong 1-39 at 2.15 (bet365, Dabble).
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Collingwood vs. Fremantle |
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Collingwood suffered a rare defeat last week, but the Pies boast a 4-0 head-to-head and line record on the back of a loss over the last twelve months. Collingwood have gone 11-1 in the head-to-head and 9-3 at the line as the home side over the last twelve months. The Pies covered the line in their last five games against the Dockers.
I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.34 (Betfair).
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Adelaide vs. Gold Coast |
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Adelaide bring 7-1 home form into this game and they host the Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval – a venue that the Suns have never won at. The Suns failed to cover the line in their last six away games against the Crows. You have to go back to 2019 for the last time that Adelaide beat Gold Coast by more than 28 points and this year’s edition is an excellent Suns side, so I don’t expect a blowout.
I would back Adelaide 1-39 at 2.05 (bet365, Dabble).