The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 23 of the 2025 AFL season. As we enter the penultimate round, nine teams are still fighting for a top-8 position.
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Essendon vs. St Kilda |
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Essendon have lost ten in a row, while St Kilda have won three on the trot, but the Saints’ 4-point margin of victory over Richmond leaves me hesitant to take them at 1.26 odds. I will instead focus on the total score market. Essendon have averaged 161.8 total points per game this season, which has seen 13 of their 20 games go under the total. The Bombers’ average total score at Marvel Stadium is 156.9, which is well below the league average of 175.6. This saw 5 of their 7 games at the venue go under the total. St Kilda’s last two games against North Melbourne and Richmond saw 147 and 108 total points, respectively. Their two games against Essendon last season averaged 150.5 total points. I would back Under 178.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
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Fremantle vs. Brisbane |
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This fixtures sees #4 host #5. Fremantle have won six in a row at home, however they failed to cover the line in their last two home wins. They only managed to beat Port Adelaide by a 6-point margin last week. Brisbane have been the competition’s best travellers. The Lions have gone 6-1 in the head-to-head and 7-0 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. In recent years they have gone 4-1 at the line as the away underdog against Fremantle. Brisbane have only suffered one 25+ away defeat over the last twelve months. They did lose last weekend, but Brisbane have been dangerous on the back of a defeat. They lost 130-64 to Gold Coast in Round 20 and followed that up with a 27-point away win over Collingwood. Fremantle on current form are a tougher ask, so rather than touch the head-to-head, I will take the Lions with a healthy head start. I would back Brisbane +23.5 at 1.30 (bet365).
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Gold Coast vs. GWS |
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This game sees #6 host #8, with only percentage separating the two sides. With the Western Bulldogs hosting the 18th placed West Coast on Sunday, the loser of this game will likely fall out of the top 8 with a round to play. There will be a playoff-level of intensity for this reason, which should bring down the total score. The Giants have averaged 166.3 total points away from home this season. This saw 7 of those 11 games go under the total. The game is being played on what is forecast to be a sunny afternoon in Queensland, so I will tack on some points to the 176.5 set by most bookmakers. I would back Under 184.5 at 1.52 (bet365).
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Hawthorn vs. Melbourne |
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Melbourne gave the Western Bulldogs an almighty scare last week under their caretaker senior coach Troy Chaplin. The fact that the Bulldogs had so much more to play for shone through in the end as they eventually took the win. It remains to be seen how long the Demons’ bounce under new leadership will last, but I’m prepared to back Hawthorn this week, given how much more they have to play for. The Hawks have gone 14-3 as the bookmaker’s favourite over the last twelve months. In recent years they have gone 10-3 as the favourite against the Demons. Hawthorn broke a nine-game winless run against Melbourne by defeating them by a 35-point margin in May. For all of Melbourne’s woes this season, only 3 of their 15 defeats over the last twelve months were by 40+ margins. It may be nervy at times, but I will back the Hawks to win a competitive contest. I will back Hawthorn 1-39 at 2.15 (PlayUp).