The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 24 of the 2025 AFL season. As we enter the final round, nine teams are still fighting for a top-8 position. Note that while the Gold Coast Suns currently sit outside the top 8 based on percentage, they play two games this round – first away against Port Adelaide on Friday and then at home against Essendon on Wednesday.
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Essendon vs. Carlton |
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This is Carlton’s final game of the season, while Essendon will have to play again on Wednesday. Carlton look set to finish the year on a high now that their injury woes have finally abated. Harry McKay is back in good form and Sam Walsh impressed last round after missing the previous ten weeks. The returning players have seen Carlton cover the line in their last five games. They now take on the Bombers, who they have beaten four times in a row. Looking back further, Carlton have gone 6-1 as the ‘away’ favourite against Essendon in recent years. The Blues won and covered the line in their last four games as the listed away team against the Bombers. The injury-hit Essendon limp into this game on an 11-game losing streak. Five of their six home defeats this season were by 40+ margins. The Bombers have gone 1-6, both in the head-to-head and the line, at the MCG this season. Nine of Carlton’s ten games at the MCG this season went under the total (148.2 average), but I’m wary of their 118-point performance against Port Adelaide last week. The winning margin stats are also mixed, due to the history of close games between the Blues and Bombers, which contrast to the Bombers’ heavy defeats this season. I will keep it simple and just back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Betfair).
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Collingwood vs. Melbourne |
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Collingwood are in 1-5 form, but those five defeats all came against top-9 teams. The Pies have gone 10-0 this season against sides currently ranked 10th to 18th. Melbourne have gone 2-11 as the underdog this season and they have lost four in a row to Collingwood. As the listed away side, the Demons lost and failed to cover the line in their last five games against the Pies. The last factor for this game is Collingwood have far more to play for than Melbourne. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.33 (Bet Right, Dabble). As the listed away team, seven of Melbourne’s eight defeats this season were by 1-39 margins and the same can be said for five of their last six ‘away’ defeats to Collingwood. Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.10 (Dabble). Ten of Collingwood’s 14 games at the MCG this season went under the total (155.6 average) and their last five games against Melbourne went under the total (136.8 average, none over 160). I would back Under 174.5 at 1.50 (bet365). A SGM possibility is Collingwood 1-39 & Under 173.5 at 3.10 (Dabble).
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Port Adelaide vs. Gold Coast |
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This is Port Adelaide’s final fixture of the season, which will make it the farewell game for coach Ken Hinkley and veteran Travis Boak. Gold Coast, in contrast, have another game against Essendon coming up on Wednesday. The Dockers have been terrible on the road this season, but they have looked better at home. Port Adelaide have gone 4-1 at the line as the home underdog this season and they have won five in a row at home against the Suns. With more to play for, the Suns should win this clash, but Port Adelaide should make this interesting. I would back Port Adelaide +34.5 at 1.50 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Gold Coast 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble).
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West Coast vs. Sydney |
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Spanning this season and the last, West Coast bring 1-23 form into this game. The Swans have won four in a row against the Eagles. Looking back further, with the dataset I have at hand, Sydney have gone 6-0 as the away favourite against West Coast. The Swans covered the line in four of their last five games as the away favourite against the Eagles. The Swans have gone 10-3 as the favourite this season and 3-1 as the away favourite. Sydney have had a disappointing season, but they have looked better in the second half of the campaign since Errol Gulden returned from injury. The Swans bring 7-3 form into this game and their last four defeats were all to playoff-chasing sides. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.23 (Betfair).
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GWS vs. St Kilda |
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The playoff-chasing GWS have far more to play for than St Kilda. The Giants bring 8-1 form into this game and they won and covered the line in their last four home fixtures. St Kilda have won four in a row, but they were all wins over sides ranked 14th or below. The Saints actually failed to cover the line in their last three fixtures. St Kilda have lost three games in a row to the GWS, and this includes a 28-point defeat in April. The Giants have a 4-1 record as the home favourite against St Kilda. I would back GWS in the head-to-head at 1.20 (Betfair).