The following are betting tips for Finals Week 1 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have the following fantasy sports contest for the round. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout:
Thu: Adelaide v Collingwood: $70,000
Fri: Geelong v Brisbane: $70,000
Saturday games: $60,000
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Adelaide (1) vs. (4) Collingwood |
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Adelaide have gone 11-1 at home this season and they take on a Collingwood side that has lost five of its last seven. The Pies have lost five games in a row against sides currently ranked 9th or better, while Adelaide have won five of their last six against such opposition. Collingwood aren’t without a good chance, however. The Crows are without the suspended Izak Rankine and they have a terrible record against the Pies. Collingwood have won 10 of their last 11 against Adelaide, and their only defeat during that run came by a 3-point margin in mid-August. A close contest wouldn’t surprise me. The last six clashes between the two were settled by 5, 1, 2, 4, 10 and 3 points. I also expect this will be a low-scoring game. Collingwood’s last seven away games went under the total and their last five games against Adelaide went under (138.4 average). The Pies’ average total score away from home this season is just 152.8, which is the lowest in the competition. Their clash against the Crows in mid August saw just 115 total points.
My primary bet for this game is:
Under 171.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
Those looking at same-game multis should consider:
Adelaide 1-24 & Under 170.5 at 4.60 (Dabble)
Adelaide 1-39 & Under 170.5 at 3.25 (Dabble)
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Geelong (2) vs. (3) Brisbane |
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This game pits Geelong’s 9-2 home record against Brisbane’s 9-1-2 away record. Over the last twelve months (which includes the tail end of last season), the Lions have gone 12-1-2 in the head-to-head (7-1 as the away underdog!) and 11-4 at the line away from home (8-0 at the line as the away underdog). One of those away wins was by a 92-51 margin over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in late June. This time round the two sides will face off at the MCG, where the Cats have gone 4-1 and the Lions have gone 3-0 this season. Geelong have generally had the better of Brisbane. The Cats won 10 of their last 12 home games against the Lions. Brisbane have turned the tables around in recent times, however. The Lions have won three in a row against the Cats, and that includes their last two meetings in Victoria. My instinct is to take Brisbane with a head-start.
My primary bet for this game is:
Brisbane +16.5 at 1.55 (bet365)
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GWS (5) vs. (8) Hawthorn |
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The Giants enter this game in 9-1 form. GWS have gone 8-3 at home this season, winning the last five in a row, and they have won four in a row at home against Hawthorn. Looking back further, the Giants have gone 8-2 at home against the Hawks. Hawthorn have gone 1-5 in the head-to-head and 2-4 at the line as the away underdog this season. The Hawks lost and failed to cover the line in their last three away games. This should be a competitive contest, however. Eight of Hawthorn’s nine defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and seven of their eight away defeats to GWS were by 1-39 margins. This contest has traditionally been lower scoring. This has seen the last six meetings between the Giants and Hawks go under the bookmaker’s total (150.2 average, 166 max).
My primary bets for this game are:
GWS 1-39 at 2.30 (Dabble)
Under 178.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
Those looking at same-game multis should consider:
GWS 1-39 & Under 179.5 at 3.60 (Dabble)
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Fremantle (6) vs. (7) Gold Coast |
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Fremantle bring 12-2 form into this game. The Dockers have gone 8-2 as the home favourite this season, while the Suns have gone 0-3 as the away underdog. Gold Coast lost and failed to cover the line in their last four away games against Fremantle. Fremantle 1-39 looks more likely than 40+. Seven of the Suns’ eight defeats this season were by 1-39 margins. Fremantle’s last seven wins over Gold Coast were by between 7 and 28 point margins.
My primary bet for this game is:
Fremantle in the head-to-head at 1.55 (Dabble)
Those looking at same-game multis should consider:
Fremantle 1-39 & Under 172.5 at 3.20 (Dabble)