The following is a preview with betting tips for the Third Test of the 2025-26 Ashes series. This match will be played at Adelaide Oval.
2025-26 Ashes Schedule
The Test Match schedule is as follows. The figures in X-Y-Z format show Australia’s head-to-head Test record against England at each venue.
First Test – Optus Stadium, Perth
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 172 & 164
Australia 132 & 205/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Second Test (day/night) – The Gabba, Brisbane
England won the toss and elected to bat.
England 334 & 241
Australia 511 & 69/2
Australia won by 8 wickets
Third Test – Adelaide Oval
December 17-21
19-5-9 record
Fourth Test – Melbourne Cricket Ground
December 26-30
25-7-19 record
Fifth Test – Sydney Cricket Ground
January 4-8
23-7-22 record
2025-26 Series So Far
First Test – Perth
The Test was over inside two days. Nineteen wickets fell on the first day as both sides struggled with the bat. On the second day, England built a lead of 105 with the fall of just one wicket. They then lost four wickets for just 11 runs. England went on to go 9-99 during the second session. Makeshift Australian opener Travis Head then scored 123 off 83 as Australia chased down 205 in just 28.2 overs. In the span of five hours, England went from being well on top to suffering an eight-wicket defeat.
Second Test- Brisbane
England dropped five catches in the first innings, which enabled Australia to build a substantial lead. Mitchell Starc was the hero of the first innings as he was the side’s top scorer on 77 to go with this six wicket haul. The English had a few good periods with the bat, but ultimately shot themselves in the foot with several passages of brainless batting. Michael Neser, a contentious late selection over off-spinner Nathan Lyon, produced a five-wicket second innings haul as Australia cruised to a crushing victory.
Recent Ashes Series Scores in Australia
It isn’t pretty reading for England. Since winning the 2010/11 series, England have lost 15 and drawn 2 matches out of 17.
2025/26: Australia lead 2-0
2021/22: Australia won 4-0
2017/18: Australia won 4-0
2013/14: Australia won 5-0
2010/11: England won 3-1
2006/07: Australia won 5-0
2002/03: Australia won 4-1
Third Test in Australia
I was curious to see how England has fared in the Third Test of each series in Australia.
2021: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Melbourne)
2017: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Perth)
2013: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Perth)
2010: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: ENG / 3rd Test: AUS (Perth)
2006: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Perth)
2002: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Perth)
1998: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Adelaide)
1994: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw (Sydney)
1990: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw (Sydney)
1986: 1st Test: ENG / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: Draw (Adelaide)
1982: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: AUS (Adelaide)
1978: 1st Test: ENG / 2nd Test: ENG / 3rd Test: AUS (Melbourne)
1974: 1st Test: AUS / 2nd Test: AUS / 3rd Test: Draw (Melbourne)
1970: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: Match abandoned (Melbourne)
1966: 1st Test: Draw / 2nd Test: Draw / 3rd Test: ENG (Sydney)
Recent Third Tests stats are horrible for England. You have to go back to 1994 for the last time the England avoided defeat and 1966 for the last time that England won.
In 2017 and 2021, Australia won the third Test by more than an innings.
Adelaide Tests
In the 21st century, Adelaide has traditionally hosted the Second, not the Third Test.
2021 (2nd Test): Australia won by 275 runs
2017 (2nd Test): Australia won by 120 runs
2013 (2nd Test): Australia won by 218 runs
2010 (2nd Test): England won by an innings and 71 runs
2006 (2nd Test): Australia won by 6 wickets
2002 (2nd Test): Australia won by an innings and 51 runs
1998 (3rd Test): Australia won by 205 runs
1995 (4th Test): England won by 106 runs
1991 (4th Test): Match drawn
1986 (3rd Test): Match drawn
Australia have won six of the last seven Ashes Tests at this venue.
Australia Team News
Captain Pat Cummins returns from injury for the first time this series. It will be interesting to see who loses their spot to make way for his return.
Off-spinner Nathan Lyon is expected to return after being omitted for the Second Test so, again, it will be interesting to see who makes way for his inclusion.
Usman Khawaja is available selection too.
Despite initially been aiming for a mid-series return, Josh Hazlewood has been ruled out for the entire series.
England Team News
Mark Wood has been ruled out for the rest of the series. Surrey’s Matthew Fisher has joined the squad in his place.
Coach Brendon McCullum has made it clear he will stick with the same top seven batters for Adelaide as the Brisbane Test.
Adelaide Weather Forecast
The Adelaide weather forecast at the time of writing is:
Wednesday: Sunny. 18-35. No rain.
Thursday: Sunny. 21-39. No rain.
Friday: Party cloudy. 22-32. No rain.
Saturday: Party cloudy. 15-28. 0-1mm rain.
Sunday: Shower or two. 15-25. 0-6mm rain.
Betting Tips
Compare Third Test odds
Compare series odds
Series Futures
The only time a side has overcame an 0-2 deficit to win an Ashes series was Australia on home soil in 1936-37.
In 16 of the 18 previous post-war Ashes series in which a team trailed 2-0 after two Tests, that side went on to lose the series by at least three Tests.
For these reasons, I like:
Australia to win the series at 1.08 (Betfair)
Australia -1.5 Tests at 1.21 (Betfair)
Third Test
The head-to-head odds for the Adelaide Test are:
Australia: 1.58 (Betfair)
Draw: 12.50 (Betfair)
England: 3.25 (bet365)
Once again, it’s hard to make a case for England. They have gone 0-2-15 in their last seventeen Tests in England. Australia have won six of the last seven Ashes Tests in Adelaide. They have also won the last seven Third Tests played in Australia. You have to go back to 1994 for the last time the England avoided a Third Test defeat and 1966 for the last time that England won a Third Test. Against all opponents, Australia have won nine of their last ten Tests at Adelaide Oval.
England have averaged 22.7 runs per wicket this series, compared to 38.2 for Australia. These figures bear strong similarity to those at the same stage in both 2021-22 (21.8 to 39.5) and 2017-18 (23.9 to 38.6). In both of those series, Australia went on to win the Third Test by more than an innings.
There’s also the fact that Australian captain Pat Cummins returns for this game.
It’s hard to make a case for the draw, given the dry weather forecast and the higher run rates in recent years. Adelaide has a reputation for providing the best wicket in Australia to bat on, however wickets have fallen at a quicker rate in red-ball Tests at Adelaide Oval than in pink-ball equivalents over the past decade. Eight of Australia’s past ten Tests in Adelaide have been played with a pink ball. In the two red-ball Tests that were played at the ground, the highest team total was just 307. Below are the batting averages by Test venue over the past decade (source: cricket.com.au):
SCG: 36.38
MCG: 30.54
Gabba: 28.39
Adelaide Oval (day-night): 28.07
Perth Stadium: 27.23
Adelaide Oval (day): 22.77
Bellerive Oval: 18.40
For the third time this series, the only selection I could consider is Australia.
Looking at player batting markets, Travis Head has averaged 79.25 in the seven Tests that he has played at his home ground. His hit three centuries in his last three matches at Adelaide Oval. You can get 6.50 (bet365) for Head to be the top run scorer in the first innings. You can also get 10.00 (bet365) for Head to be the player of the match.
Looking at player bowling markets, Mitchell Starc has taken 18 wickets so far this series, which is twice as many as any other bowler. He is also the leading wicket taker at Adelaide Oval since 2015 (55 at 17.14). You can get 5.00 (bet365) for Starc to be the top first innings wicket taker. You can also get 9.50 (bet365) for Starc to be the player of the match.