The following is an AFL ladder prediction plus futures betting tips for the 2026 AFL season. The minor premiership, top 4 and bottom 4 markets are discussed.
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2026 AFL Ladder Prediction
We conducted a survey of 50 pundit ladder predictions to help assess each team’s chances for the upcoming season. Our sources included fans, journalists and statistical model builders.
The following table ranks each team by their expectations from the surveyed pundits. The standard deviation (Stdev) column indicates how widely dispersed the predictions were. The best and worst predictions for each team are also provided.
For the third straight season, Brisbane came out strongly on top. Over two-thirds of the fifty ladder predictions tipped them for the Minor Premiership and 94% predict that they will finish in the top four.
At the other end of the spectrum, 90% of the surveyed pundits tipped West Coast to collect the 2026 wooden spoon.
Adelaide are not expected to replicate their Minor Premiership from last year. Not a single pundit tipped them to finish first this season.
Like last year, it could be the case of one unlucky club to miss the playoffs. There’s a big drop-off between St Kilda in to make the top 10 (52%), compared to Melbourne (16%).
Note the drop-off from 14th to 15th. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast have not been tipped to make the top 8 by any pundit. This compares to at least 8% for the rest of the competition.
The standard deviation column is a good indication of how polarising some clubs are with the pundits. It’s noteworthy that there’s higher variance for the clubs ranked 2nd-11th, compared to the rest of the league. Melbourne (14th) is the only exception to that. Melbourne is an anomaly in another sense. They had only the 14th highest average rating, however they have been given the 12th highest chance of making the top 10.
The table below provides the frequency that each club has been tipped to finish in each ladder position.
Below are comments for each club:
Adelaide: 60% have tipped them to finish between 5th and 7th.
Brisbane: strong consensus. 68% picked them to finish 1st and 94% tipped them to finish in the top 3.
Carlton: strong consensus. 56% have tipped them to finish 12th or 13th and 90% have tipped them to finish between 11th and 14th.
Collingwood: polarising. 44% have tipped them to finish 10th or 11th, but the next most popular position is 5th.
Essendon: strong consensus. 94% have tipped them to finish between 13th and 17th.
Fremantle: polarising. 24% have tipped them to finish 9th, but the next most popular pick is 2nd (14%). There is a strong consensus on them to make the top 9, however.
Geelong: the second most polarising, with predictions ranging from 1 to 12. 26% of the pundits picked Geelong to finish in the top two, but the next most popular pick is 5th. 18% of the pundits picked Geelong to finish 1st, which was the second highest tally for the top spot, behind Brisbane.
Gold Coast: 34% pundits have predicted that they will finish exactly 4th. 62% have picked them to finish between 2nd and 4th. Only one pundit picked them for the Minor Premiership, compared to eight pundits picking the Suns to finish 2nd.
GWS: 68% of pundits have tipped them to finish between 7th and 11th, with no strong consensus within that range.
Hawthorn: 8% of pundits picked Hawthorn to finish 1st. The Hawks were the only team besides Brisbane (68%) and Geelong (18%) to receive more than one vote for 1st. 52% of pundits have picked Hawthorn to finish between 3rd and 5th. Only one pundit picked the Hawks to finish outside the top 8.
Melbourne: 96% picked them to finish between 10th and 17th. The frequency in that range was fairly even, however 15th was the standout pick, receiving 20% of the votes.
North Melbourne: strong consensus. 76% of pundits have picked the Kangaroos to finish 15th or 16th.
Port Adelaide: strong consensus. 42% picked them to finish 14th and 80% picked them to finish between 12th and 14th.
Richmond: strong consensus. 54% picked them to finish 17th, 74% picked them to finish 16th or 17th and 86% picked them to finish between 15th and 17th. Richmond was the only team besides West Coast to receive more than one pick for the wooden spoon.
St Kilda: split into two camps. The most popular pick is 13th and the second joint most popular pick is 7th. 72% picked them to finish between 9th and 13th and 24% picked them to finish 6th or 7th.
Sydney: the most polarising team. 40% picked that Sydney will finish 9th or 10th and 52% picked them to finish between 9th and 11th, but the next most popular picks for the Swans are 3rd and 4th. Only one pundit has picked them to finish 7th.
West Coast: by far the strongest consensus amongst pundits. 90% picked them to finish 18th and 100% picked them to finish in the bottom two.
Western Bulldogs: polarising. The top two picks are 8th (20%) and 3rd (18%). The one consistency, however is that 78% of pundits predict that they will finish somewhere between those two placings.
2026 AFL Futures Betting Tips
For those who like to jump in and out of trades, the best place to wager on the futures market is Betfair, because you can lay previous selections to lock in a profit or minimise a loss. For those who prefer to bet with bookmakers, bet365 is a good option because they enable you to cash out of earlier bets.
Based on the pundit data, we recommend the following futures bets:
Minor Premiership
Brisbane to win the Minor Premiership at 4.50 (Dabble, NextBet)
68% of our pundits predict that Brisbane will top the ladder.
Top 4
Brisbane to finish in the Top 4 at 1.70 (NextBet)
Predicted by 94% of our pundits. Despite winning back-to-back Premierships, there’s a fear we have actually yet to see the best of Brisbane. They have added Oscar Allen, Sam Draper, and Daniel Annable to the squad, for good measure.
Adelaide to miss the Top 4 at 1.53 (NextBet)
Predicted by 80% of our pundits. Everything went right for Adelaide last year. They had few injury issues and an easier fixture list. They have a tougher draw this season and they picked up some injuries in pre-season. Their highly-coveted High Performance Manager, Darren Burgess, has departed. Based on expected score, the Crows won five games they should have lost last season, so some mean reversion is expected.
Bottom 4
North Melbourne to finish in the Bottom 4 at 1.80 (Dabble)
Predicted by 84% of our pundits. The Kangaroos have failed to win six games in each of the last six seasons.