The following are betting tips for the Opening Round of the 2026 AFL season.
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Draftstars have $75,000 fantasy sports contests for each of the Swans v Blues and Suns v Cats clashes. They also have a $60,000 combined contest for the Saturday games and a $60,000 contest for the Saints v Magpies clash on Sunday. For each competition, entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a pay out.
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Sydney vs. Carlton |
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Sydney 1-39 at 2.20 (BetEstate, Dabble)
Sydney suffered badly in the absence of the injured Errol Gulden last season, but they picked up in form when he returned to finish on an 8-3 run. The Swans have added two-time Coleman Medal-winner Charlie Curnow to the squad and he gets to commence his Sydney career against his former club. This new-look Carlton squad is a bit of an unknown quantity given the departure of 11 players and the addition of 8. The departures of Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni indicate that this may be more of a rebuilding season for the Blues.
Sydney have been largely predictable at home. They went 4-1 as the home favourite and 1-5 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. Carlton, meanwhile, went 0-6 as the away underdog. With the dataset I have at hand, Carlton have lost 10 of their last 11 visits to the SCG, with a line record of 4-7. The Blues failed to cover the line in their last four away fixtures against the Swans. The Sydney 1-39 pick holds more appeal than the head-to-head odds (1.34 with BetEstate) because the Swans failed to beat a single team at home by 40+ over the last twelve months and only one win came by a 25+ margin. Five of Carlton’s seven away defeats and 11 of their 14 home and away defeats over the same period were by 1-39. In the head-to-head data, 8 of Carlton’s last 12 away defeats to Sydney were by 1-39 margins.
Under 183.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
Sydney averaged 162.7 total points at home last season, while Carlton averaged 153.1 away from home. Humid conditions are expected on Thursday and this fixture saw just 140 points scored last year.
SGM: Carlton to win the 1st QTR / Sydney to win at 4.50 (bet365)
SGM: Carlton to win the 1st Half / Sydney to win at 6.50 (bet365)
SGM: Carlton to win the 1st QTR / Carlton to win the 1st Half / Sydney to win at 9.50 (bet365)
SGM: Carlton to win the 1st QTR / Carlton to win the 1st Half / Sydney to win / Under 180 at 15.00 (bet365)
For those looking for more risk, Sydney had a 5-1-5 first quarter and 5-6 first half record at home last season, while Carlton had a surprisingly good 8-3 first quarter and 8-3 first half record away from home. The Swans won this fixture last season after being behind at the end of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters.
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Gold Coast vs. Geelong |
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Gold Coast 1-39 at 2.30 (BetEstate)
For this bet I’m banking on Geelong key forward Jeremy Cameron not being able to overcome injury in time to feature. The Cats take on the Suns, who went 9-2 at home last season and who have bolstered the squad by unveiling Christian Petracca this week. Gold Coast are also expected to get Charlie Ballard back from injury. Geelong haven’t won on the Gold Coast since 2022 and they have a 2-5 line record away from home against the Suns. All four of the Cats’ away defeats last season were by 1-39 margins and they only lost one away game by 25+. Six of the Suns’ nine home wins last season were by 1-39 margins.
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Brisbane vs. Western Bulldogs |
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Brisbane 1-39 at 2.20 (BetEstate)
Brisbane welcome Oscar Allen to an already strong squad this weekend. With the dataset I have at hand, Brisbane have won 8 of their last 11 games as the home favourite against the Western Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were predictable on the road last season. They went 6-0 as the away favourite and 1-4 as the away underdog. In all fixtures, the Bulldogs went 1-6 as the underdog last year and they had a 2-9 record against the top eight. The Bulldogs covered the line in just 2 of their last 8 visits to the Gabba. All nine of the Bulldogs’ defeats last season were by 1-39 margins and the same can be said for 6 of their last 8 away defeats to Brisbane. Seven of the Lions’ eight home wins last season were by 1-39 margins and the forecasted wet conditions should put a dampener on the score line.