AFL Round 1 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season.

Be sure to also check out our 2026 AFL Ladder Prediction & Futures Betting Tips.

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Draftstars have $60,000 fantasy sports contests for each of the Blues v Tigers and Bombers v Hawks clashes. They also have a $60,000 contest for the Saturday games and a $60,000 contest for the Sunday games. For each competition, entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a pay out.

 

Carlton vs. Richmond

 

Under 173.5 at 1.91 (bet365)

This game will be played at the MCG, where 11 of Richmond’s 13 games went under the total last year, with an average total score of 146.8. It’s a similar story for Carlton. Last year 10 of their 11 games at this venue went under the total, with an average total score of 148.0. This matchup last season saw 151 total points. The average total score at the MCG last year was 162.9. Those looking for less risk should consider Under 183.5 at 1.50 (bet365).

 

Essendon vs. Hawthorn

 

Hawthorn in the head-to-head at 1.23 (BetEstate)

Hawthorn have the advantage of having already played one competitive fixture this season. This game will be played at the MCG where Essendon went 1-7, both in the head-to-head and the line, last season. The Bombers went 3-16 as the underdog over the last twelve months, while the Hawks went 12-3 as the favourite. Those looking for more risk should consider Hawthorn 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble). Last year, 12 of Hawthorn’s 16 wins were by 1-39 margins. Going back to 2018, their last four wins over Essendon were all by 1-26 points.

 

Western Bulldogs vs. GWS

 

Western Bulldogs in the head-to-head at 1.36 (Bet Right)

Both sides enter this game on the back of upset wins in the Opening Round, but the Bulldogs’ away win over the reigning Premiers was arguably the more impressive. The Western Bulldogs won and covered the line in their last four fixtures against GWS. All four of those wins were by 27+ point margins. The score line in this fixture last season was 132-44.

 

Melbourne vs. St Kilda

 

Under 176.5.5 at 1.91 (bet365)

This game will be played at the MCG, where Melbourne averaged 170.2 total points last season and St Kilda averaged just 123.5. The Saints’ Opening Round game against Collingwood at this venue last week saw 144 total points. The Dees enter this season without Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, which could put a dampener on their scoring. The last four meetings between Melbourne and St Kilda at the MCG saw 150, 101, 148 and 162 total points. Those looking for less risk should consider Under 186.5 at 1.52 (bet365).

 

Gold Coast vs. West Coast

 

First goal scorer: Bailey Humphrey at 11.00 (Dabble)

With Gold Coast installed as the -65.5 favourite, I will simply opt for a bit of fun and take Bailey Humphrey as the first goal scorer. He kicked the opening goal last week. He also accounted for two of the first three goals and three of the first five goals. Humphrey kicked 18 goals in the final 12 games for the Suns in 2025.