The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 11 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.
Southampton vs. Burnley
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.62 (Mad Bookie)
Only 1 of Burnley’s last 8 games went over 2.5 goals, which was their 3-0 defeat to high-flying Manchester City. During that stretch no other team has scored more than once against them, while Burnley never scored more than once themselves. As for Southampton, 6 of their last 8 games have gone under 2.5 goals, with Southampton only scoring more than once in 1 of those matches. Three of the last four fixtures between the two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and based on current form there’s little to suggest there will be a departure from this trend this weekend. Two of the last 4 meetings between the two went under 1.5, plus 4 of Burnley’s last 8 games went under 1.5 goals so under 1.5 at 2.95 (Unibet) is worth a look as well.
Back Newcastle in the head-to-head at 2.01 (Pinnacle)
Given they’re at home, Newcastle represent reasonable value at 2.01 odds. They’ve gone 3-1-1 at St. James’ Park since being promoted back into the Premier League and 3-0-0 when installed as the home favourite. Bournemouth, meanwhile, haven’t traveled well, going 4-4-11 away from home over the last 12 months.
Huddersfield vs. West Brom
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.45 (Unibet)
Since Huddersfield beat Crystal Palace 3-0 in their opening fixture, none of their six subsequent fixtures against sides outside the top six have gone over 2.5 goals. This is largely due to the fact that in only one of those games did both sides find the back of the net, while two of those games resulted in a 0-0 draw. As for West Brom, all five of their away fixtures this campaign have gone under 2.5 goals as the Tony Pulis side aims to contain their opposition rather than play aggressively.
West Ham vs. Liverpool
Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.71 (Unibet)
I expect Liverpool to be too good against West Ham’s questionable defence. Even Crystal Palace, for all of their offensive struggles, managed to put two past them last week. Over the last 12 months, West Ham have a 1-1-6 home record when installed as the underdog while Liverpool have lost only 3 of 14 when installed as the away favourite. The last time Liverpool visited the Olympic Stadium they came away 4-0 winners.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Back Tottenham in the head-to-head at 1.27 (Unibet)
Tottenham have gone 16-2-1 at home over the last 12 months while Crystal Palace are on a 7-game losing streak away from Selhurst Park.
Back Tottenham to win to nil at 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Crystal Palace have yet to score away from home in the EPL this season and they have failed to score in their last four visits to Tottenham. Tottenham have conceded just one goal in their last three home fixtures.
Back Tottenham 1-0 Crystal Palace in the correct score market at 9.00 (bet365)
It may seem an unlikely scoreline, but 4 of Tottenham’s last 8 EPL fixtures against Crystal Palace were won 1-0 by Tottenham, including their last two home fixtures. Three of Crystal Palace’s five away fixtures this season ended in 1-0 defeats, including a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
Back Man City in the head-to-head at 1.45 (SBOBET)
Man City are 9-1-0 in the EPL this season have won their last 8 straight. The last four Man City home games have resulted in an aggregate of 20 goals to 2. Arsenal have gone 1-1-3 away from home this campaign and have gone 0-2-5 over the last 12 months when installed as the away underdog.
Back 2-2 in the correct score market at 15.00 (bet365)
As a bit of insurance, 3 of the last 6 fixtures between the two ended in a 2-2 draw.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.64 (Unibet)
Against top six sides United manager Jose Mourinho likes to make his team tough to beat, so I expect a low scoring game with a 0-0 scoreline a definite possibility. United have played two top-six sides so far and kept clean sheets in both of them. Six of their last eight EPL clashes against Chelsea have gone under 2.5 goals. At the time N’Golo Kante is rated a 50% chance of playing for Chelsea, but if he does play then Chelsea at in the head-to-head at 2.59 (Pinnacle) is worth a look, given Chelsea have an imposing 14-1-3 home record over the last 12 months while United are 0-3-2 as the away underdog. Either way, I’m expecting a low scoring game.