The following is a preview with betting tips for the 2018/19 Big Bash League (BBL|08) season, which runs from 19 December 2018 until 17 February 2019. A list of betting resources is also provided.
Key BBL statistics
- The 2017/18 season showed once again how crucial each result is, with the Hobart Hurricanes making the playoffs with a 5-5 record and the Sixers, Thunder and Heat all missing out with 4-6 records. In the season before that no team finished better than 5-3 in the regular season and no team finished worse than 3-5./li>
- This season is the first to feature a full home and away season, where each team plays each other twice. This has expanded the regular season from 10 games to 14 games.
- “Home advantage” has historically not been of great advantage. Since the BBL began the home team has only won 47.0% of all completed matches.
- Winning the toss is more important than home advantage. Since the competition began, the side that won the toss has won 54.7% of all completed matches.
- Teams that batted second have won 52.2% of all completed matches.
- In the seven seasons to date only one team that topped the regular standings went on to win the title. This was achieved by Perth in 2016/17. The teams that have finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th have each won two titles. Much of this trend is due to international commitments, with teams losing key players to the Australian ODI and other international sides later in the competition. Another factor is that home advantage hasn’t been historically important.
- 2011–12 – 6th (2-5)
- 2012–13 – 5th (4-4)
- 2013–14 – 7th (2-1-5)
- 2014–15 – 1st (6-1-1), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2015–16 – 1st (7-1), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2016–17 – 6th (3-5)
- 2017–18 – 2nd (7-3), title winners
Travis Head (c), Wes Agar, Alex Carey, Michael Cormack, David Grant, Colin Ingram (South Africa), Rashid Khan (Afghanistan), Ben Laughlin, Jake Lehmann, Michael Neser, Liam O’Connor, Matt Short, Peter Siddle, Billy Stanlake, Cameron Valente, Jake Weatherald, Jonathan Wells, Nick Winter
INS: Matt Short (Melbourne Renegades), Cameron Valente (Brisbane Heat),
OUTS: Jono Dean, Daniel Drew
- Title winners last campaign and had by far the best net run rate of any team during the regular season
- Have retained 16 of the 18-man squad that won last season’s title
- Alex Carey (49.22 avg), Jake Weatherald (avg 31.91) and Travis Head (53.42) were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th highest scoring batsman in the league last season
- Five bowlers finished in the top eleven wicket takers taken last season. Rashid Khan was the standout bowler in the competition, picking up 18 wickets from 11 innings with an economy of 5.65.
- Only one team has ever won back-to-back titles
- Travis Head will only have limited involvement due to international duties. Alex Carey, Peter Siddle, Billy Stanlake could also be involved in international limited overs duty, along with possibly Jake Lehmann and Jake Weatherald.
- 2011–12 – 5th (3-4)
- 2012–13 – 4th (4-4), title winners
- 2013–14 – 5th (3-5)
- 2014–15 – 8th (2-6)
- 2015–16 – 6th (3-5)
- 2016–17 – 2nd (5-3), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2017–18 – 7th (4-6)
Chris Lynn (c), Max Bryant, Joe Burns, Ben Cutting, Brendan Doggett, Sam Heazlett, Matt Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Lalor, Brendon McCullum, James Pattinson, Jimmy Peirson, Jack Prestwidge, Mujeeb Ur Rahman (Afghanistan), Matt Renshaw, Alex Ross, Mark Steketee, Mitchell Swepson
INS: Matt Kuhnemann, James Pattinson (Melbourne Renegades), Jack Prestwidge, Mujeeb Ur Rahman (Afghanistan)
OUTS: Shadab Khan, Cameron Valente (Adelaide Strikers), Jason Floros, Cameron Gannon
- Chris Lynn has looked in good form of late, hitting 113 off 45 balls (including 15 sixes) in Queensland Premier Cricket earlier in the month. Lynn averaged 154.50 with the bat with a strike rate of 177.58 in 2016/17. If he can get anywhere near that form then Brisbane will be in business.
- Matthew Renshaw isn’t in the Australian Test side this year so he will feature after missing last season
- New teenage signing Mujeeb Ur Rahman took 14 wickets in the IPL this year
- Kiwi veteran Brendon McCullum only averaged 21.16 with the bat in the IPL this season. This is a career low dating back to 2008 (excluding 2013 when he only played one game).
- No Heat player featured in the top 15 competition run scorers last season
- No Heat player featured in the top 15 competition wicket takers last season
- Chris Lynn could be called away to international commitments
- 2011–12 – 2nd (5-2), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2012–13 – 6th (4-4)
- 2013–14 – 4th (3-1-4), runners up
- 2014–15 – 5th (3-5)
- 2015–16 – 7th (3-5)
- 2016–17 – 7th (3-5)
- 2017–18 – 4th (5-5), runners up
Matthew Wade (c), Jofra Archer (England), George Bailey (c), Johan Botha, Jake Doran, James Faulkner, Caleb Jewell, Ben McDermott, Riley Meredith, Simon Milenko, Tymal Mills (England), David Moody, Tim Paine, Tom Rogers, Clive Rose, D’Arcy Short, Aaron Summers
INS: Jake Doran, James Faulkner (Melbourne Stars), Caleb Jewell, Johan Botha (Sixers)
OUTS: Cameron Boyce (Melbourne Renegades), Dan Christian (Melbourne Renegades), Sam Rainbird (Sydney Thunder)
- Have retained D’Arcy Short, who was named player of the series last season. Short topped the run scoring chart with a whopping 572 runs, 129 more than any other player. He averaged 57.20 with a strike rate of 148.57 last campaign.
- Ben McDermott is handy with the bat as well. He scored the 6th most runs last season with a strike rate of 138.29.
- The Barbados-born Jofra Archer returns. He took 16 wickets in his debut campaign last season, which was tied for the 3rd most in the league.
- Tim Paine is unavailable due to his commitments to Australia as the Test captain
- 2011–12 – 7th (2-5)
- 2012–13 – 1st (7-1), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2013–14 – 6th (3-5)
- 2014–15 – 6th (3-5)
- 2015–16 – 5th (3-5)
- 2016–17 – 5th (4-4)
- 2017–18 – 3rd (6-4), eliminated in the semi-finals
Aaron Finch (c), Cameron Boyce, Dan Christian, Tom Cooper, Zak Evans, Marcus Harris, Mackenzie Harvey, Jon Holland, Tim Ludeman, Joe Mennie, Mohammad Nabi (Afghanistan), Kane Richardson, Usman Khan Shinwari (Pakistan)*, Harry Gurney (England)*, Will Sutherland, Chris Tremain, Beau Webster, Cameron White, Jack Wildermuth
* – Gurney will replace Shinwari midway through the season.
INS: Cameron Boyce (Hurricanes), Dan Christian (Hurricanes), Zak Evans, Harry Gurney (England), Mackenzie Harvey, Will Sutherland (rookie), Usman Khan Shinwari (Pakistan)
OUTS: Dwayne Bravo (Stars), Brad Hodge (retired), Brad Hogg (unsigned), James Pattinson (Heat), Matt Short (Strikers), Guy Walker (AFL)
- Have a lot of experience in the squad
- Three players ranked in the top ten run scorers last season, including Cameron White, whose average of 76.00 was the highest in the competition.
- Dwayne Bravo has departed. He was tied for the top wicket taker last season.
- Aaron Finch, Marcus Harris and Chris Tremain could be tied up with Test duty, while Kane Richardson could be called away to limited overs international duty later on.
- 2011–12 – 4th (4-3), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2012–13 – 3rd (5-3), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2013–14 – 1st (8-0), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2014–15 – 3rd (5-3), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2015–16 – 2nd (5-3), eliminated in the final
- 2016–17 – 4th (4-4), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2017–18 – 8th (2-8)
Michael Beer, Jackson Bird, Scott Boland, Liam Bowe, Dwayne Bravo (West Indies), Jackson Coleman, Travis Dean, Ben Dunk, Seb Gotch, Evan Gulbis, Peter Handscomb, Sandeep Lamichhane (Nepal)*, Liam Plunkett (England)*, Nic Maddinson, Glenn Maxwell, Jonathan Merlo, Marcus Stoinis, Daniel Worrall, Adam Zampa
* – Plunkett will replace Lamichhane midway through the season. Liam Plunkett was signed by the Melbourne Stars as a replacement for Matt Parkinson who has been ruled out of the BBL with a back injury.
INS: Jackson Bird (Sixers), Dwayne Bravo (West Indies), Travis Dean, Sandeep Lamichhane (Nepal), Nic Maddinson (Sixers), Jonathan Merlo, Liam Plunkett
OUTS: James Faulkner (Hurricanes), Sam Harper (unsigned), John Hastings, Kevin Pietersen (retired), Rob Quiney (retired), Luke Wright, Matt Parkinson (injured)
- Have signed Dwayne Bravo, who was tied for the top wicket taker last season.
- Batsman Ben Dunk had a disappointing 2017/18 season following a dominant 2016/17 campaign.
- Were incredibly poor with the ball last season. Only one player took more than six wickets last campaign and that was John Hastings, who has been forced into retirement for medical reasons.
- 2011–12 – 1st (5-2), runners up
- 2012–13 – 2nd (5-3), runners up
- 2013–14 – 3rd (5-3), title winners
- 2014–15 – 2nd (5-2), title winners
- 2015–16 – 3rd (5-3), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2016–17 – 1st (5-3), title winners
- 2017–18 – 1st (8-2), eliminated in the semi-finals
Ashton Agar, Cameron Bancroft, Jason Behrendorff, Hilton Cartwright, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kelly, Michael Klinger, Mitchell Marsh, Shaun Marsh, Joel Paris, Usman Qadir (Pakistan), Jhye Richardson, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, Sam Whiteman, David Willey (England)
INS: Matthew Kelly, Usman Qadir (Pakistan)
OUTS: Mitchell Johnson (retired), Adam Voges (retired/coach)
- Incredibly consistent, finishing no less than 3rd in the regular season standings and making 5 of the 7 BBL finals, winning 3 of them
- Andrew Tye took 16 wickets last season, which was tied for the 3rd most in the competition. He managed this despite only playing 6 games! His bowling strike rate was 8.8, which was the best figure in the competition by miles. His bowling average of 12.00 was also the best in the competition.
- Ashton Agar’s bowling economy rate was 5.74 last campaign
- Ashton Turner had a strike rate of 162.58 with the bat last season
- Cameron Bancroft only played 5 games last season but managed 194 runs with an average of 48.50
- Mitchell Marsh and Shaun Marsh are currently tied up with the Australian Test squad while Ashton Agar, Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jhye Richardson and Andrew Tye could also be called away
- Cameron Bancroft will only be available from December 29 when his suspension concludes
- Coach Justin Langer has departed to coach the Australian side
- While Andrew Tye took 16 wickets, no teammate managed more than 8 last campaign
- 2011–12 – 3rd (5-2), title winners
- 2012–13 – 7th (3-5)
- 2013–14 – 2nd (6-2), eliminated in the semi-finals
- 2014–15 – 4th (5-3), runners up
- 2015–16 – 8th (2-6)
- 2016–17 – 3rd (5-3), runners up
- 2017–18 – 5th (4-6)
Moises Henriques (c), Sean Abbott, Juston Avendano, Tom Curran (England), Joe Denly (England), Ben Dwarshuis, Jack Edwards, Mickey Edwards, Dan Fallins, Daniel Hughes, Nathan Lyon, Peter Nevill, Stephen O’Keefe, Josh Philippe, Lloyd Pope, Jordan Silk, Henry Thornton, Greg West
INS: Juston Avendano, Tom Curran (England), Jack Edwards (rookie), Dan Fallins, Josh Philippe, Lloyd Pope, Greg West
OUTS: Jackson Bird (Stars), Johan Botha (Hurricanes), Doug Bollinger (retired), Nic Maddinson (Stars), Sam Billings (England), Jason Roy (England), Mitchell Starc
- Boast a lot of up and coming Australian talent, including all-rounder Jack Edwards and bowler Lloyd Pope
- Moises Henriques returns after taking a break from cricket for personal reasons
- Joe Denly scored 146 runs from just 4 innings last season. He averaged 73.00 with a strike rate of 131.53.
- Only Nic Maddinson made the top 16 points scorers last season and he has departed for the Stars. The next top scorer Daniel Hughes had an underwhelming strike rate of 110.19.
- Only Sean Abbott took more than 7 wickets last season
- Will likely only have access to Nathan Lyon near the end of the tournament
- Lack the same levels of experience as other squads
- New signing John Hastings had to withdraw from the squad due to health issues
- 2011–12 – 8th (2-5)
- 2012–13 – 8th (0-8)
- 2013–14 – 8th (1-7)
- 2014–15 – 6th (3-5)
- 2015–16 – 4th (4-4), title winners
- 2016–17 – 8th (3-5)
- 2017–18 – 6th (4-6)
Shane Watson (c), Fawad Ahmed, Jos Buttler* (England) Pat Cummins, Anton Devcich* (New Zealand) Callum Ferguson, Ryan Gibson, Chris Green, Liam Hatcher, Chris Jordan* (England), Usman Khawaja, Jay Lenton, Nathan McAndrew, Arjun Nair, Kurtis Patterson, Sam Rainbird, Joe Root* (England), Daniel Sams, Gurinder Sandhu, Jason Sangha
INS: Anton Devcich (New Zealand), Chris Jordan (England), Nathan McAndrew, Sam Rainbird, Joe Root (England), Daniel Sams, Jason Sangha
OUTS: Aiden Blizzard (retired), Andrew Fekete, Mitchell McClenaghan, Clint McKay (retired), Ben Rohrer (retired)
* Joe Root and Jos Buttler will depart the Sydney Thunder for international duties. When they do, Chris Jordan and Anton Devcich will join the squad.
- Have retained the services of Shane Watson, who led the side with 331 runs last season – the 5th most in the competition
- Jos Buttler scored 202 runs in just six innings last season with a strike rate of 143.26
- Bowler Fawad Ahmed had an economy of 6.12 last season while taking 12 wickets.
- Finished 6th or worse in six of the seven BBL seasons thus far
- Joe Root, Jos Buttler, Usman Khawaja and Pat Cummins’ involvement will be limited due to international duties
Third Party Predictions
- Perth Scorchers (5.00) — 2nd (Fox Sports), 3rd (The Roar)
- Adelaide Strikers (6.00) — 1st (Fox Sports), 1st (The Roar)
- Brisbane Heat (6.50) — 5th (Fox Sports), 5th (The Roar)
- Hobart Hurricanes (8.00) — 3rd (Fox Sports), 6th (The Roar)
- Melbourne Stars (8.00) — 6th (Fox Sports), 8th (The Roar)
- Melbourne Renegades (9.00) — 4th (Fox Sports), 2nd (The Roar)
- Sydney Thunder (10.00) — 7th (Fox Sports), 4th (The Roar)
- Sydney Sixers (11.00) — 8th (Fox Sports), 7th (The Roar)
- Fox Sports preview
- The Roar previews: Heat, Renegades, Strikers, Scorchers, Thunder, Stars, Sixers, Hurricanes
Due to the potential for extensive international disruptions to the Perth Scorchers squad, my pick for the title are the Adelaide Strikers at 6.00 (Sportsbet). They have good depth to the squad with both bat and ball and they statistically dominated last season in terms of net run rate. Sixteen of the eighteen-man squad from last year return and they aren’t overly reliant on a single player, with three batsman finishing in the top four run scorers last campaign and five bowlers finishing in the top eleven wicket takers. I’m a fan of the notion that offence wins headlines while defence wins titles, and the fact that Adelaide boast five bowlers who took 11+ wickets last season is key.
If I had to pick a team to stay clear of it would be the Brisbane Heat. Chris Lynn only played 5 games last season and Brendon McCullum is coming off a poor IPL campaign. No Heat player featured in the top 15 competition run scorers or wicket takers last season.
For the top batsman I would consider someone who is expected play for the duration of the competition. This season is four rounds longer than last year, so a departure to international duties will have a bigger impact on the number of games missed. D’Arcy Short dominated last season but a call up to the Australian squad is real possibility, so I would opt for someone like Cameron White at 17.00 (bet365). He averaged 76.00 with the bat last campaign, scoring 304 runs in 8 games. His teammate Aaron Finch is likely to be heavily involved with Australia, which will give White plenty of opportunity at the crease. Jake Weatherald at 17.00 (bet365) is also worth a look. If Weatherald misses out on international selection then he is a real chance given teammate Travis Head will miss most of the season and fellow teammate Alex Carey could miss some of the season too. Shane Watson at 13.00 (bet365) is another genuine chance.
Bookmaker cricket promotions
Bookmaker odds comparison
To assist you with model building, historical BBL data, including game results and bookmaker odds, can be found in the Data section. The data set is updated daily during the season and is available in Excel (.xlsx) format.
Our sister site provides the following Big Bash League resources.
AusSportsTipping.com offers Big Bash League match centres for every fixture. Each match centre provides bookmaker odds, member tipping tallies, form guides and in-depth performance guides for the game.
Interactive form guide
The Interactive Big Bash League Form Guide enables you to filter each team’s form by home/away and strength of opponent.
Betting Value Index
The Big Bash League betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. The data can be filtered by date.
Home-field Advantage Analysis
The Big Bash League home-field advantage analysis compares each team’s winning record at home versus away. League averages and medians are also provided. The data can be filtered by date.
The Big Bash League Elo ratings tool enables you to calculate the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.
- Squad lists sourced from https://www.theroar.com.au/cricket/big-bash-league-teams/
- Ins and outs sourced from https://www.bigbash.com.au/news/updated-big-bash-squads-new-season-strikers-hurricanes-sixers-thunder-renegades-stars-scorchers-heat/2018-11-29
- 2017/18 run scoring stats sourced from http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=11935;type=tournament
- 2017/18 bowling stats sourced from http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/bowling/most_wickets_career.html?id=11935;type=tournament
- Brendon McCullum IPL stats sourced from https://www.iplt20.com/teams/royal-challengers-bangalore/squad/202/brendon-mccullum