The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, June 29. There are just two Group races this weekend, the D’orsogna-strickland Stakes (Race 4) at Belmont and the Sunshine Coast Guineas (Race 6) at the Sunshine Coast. Other selected races at Caulfield, Rosehill and the Sunshine Coast are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best Bets of the Day
Belmont Race 4, No. 4 Galaxy Star
Rosehill Race 7, No. 8 Organza
Sunshine Coast Race 8, No. 3 Jamaican Rain
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #4 Galaxy Star
4. Galaxy Star (3 stars)
3. Cappo D’oro (3 stars)
2. Gatting (3 stars)
1. Great Shot (3 stars)
The jury is out on the outstanding GALAXY STAR after her shock Hyperion Stakes defeat, but happy to back her in to make amends in what is potentially her last start. It was obviously a surprise to see her unable to run down GATTING two weeks back, but the previous Belmont Sprint gutbuster may have just taken the edge off her. Team Williams are the best in the business, so confident they’ll have her ready to produce her best. Gatting will be backed to win again and deservedly so. He’s a serious racehorse. MIZLECKI and GREAT SHOT will fight it out for third and fourth again.
Selections: 4. Galaxy Star, 2. Gatting, 5. Mizlecki, 1. Great Shot
1. Galaxy Star (5 stars)
2. Gatting (4 stars)
3. Great Shot (5 stars)
GALAXY STAR (4) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at this track. Appeals best. GATTING (2) Won last run at this track and third up. Has won 1 from 2 starts this campaign. Should go well. GREAT SHOT (1) Has plenty of early speed. Can improve on finishing 3rd last run at this course. Solid place bet prospects. MIZLECKI (5) Average effort when beaten 2.9L around here last run but has a positive draw. Each way appeals best here
Race 2 #13 Tavistock Dancer – VALUE BET
Race 2 #2 Five Kingdom – LAY BET – bet against this horse with Betfair
Race 1, No.3 Sizzlefly – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 4: Back Sweet Jazz (4.00) to win.
Race 8 #1 Bon Amis – BEST BET
Race 3, No.8 Think Free – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 4, No.6 Asharani – 4 stars
Back White Boots (4.20) to win.
2. Bon Amis
Back Wagner (8.00) and save on Junglized (21.00).
If investing 10 units have 9 units on Wagner and 1 unit on Junglized.
Race 7: Organza and Nicci’s Gold
ORGANZA (8) continued her great run of form last start when only narrowly beaten in the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic. Didn’t have the best of luck there and can atone here from the middle draw. Rates well in this line up and should prove hard to beat. NICCI’S GOLD (13) followed up on her eye catching run fresh when too strong late at this track last start over 1500m. Drops back in trip, which is a slight query, but she is flying. GAULOIS (10) didn’t have a lot of luck last start and has to be kept safe, while FIRSTHAND (4) also holds claims.
5. Seaway (3 stars)
8. Organza (3 stars)
6. Testashadow (3 stars)
13. Nicci’s Gold (3 stars)
DEPLOY can lead this at his leisure and it’s a big part part of why I’m giving him another chance today (presuming fair odds). OK, he was disappointing in the Stradbroke but it was the Stradbroke and he meets a lesser lot here no question. The fact he returned with a narrow defeat the hands of Trekking and Brave Song could be read as either a positive or negative. Encouraging that he has recently matched up well against those good horses. The negative thought – last prep (over summer) he returned with a really nice run and then just couldn’t back it up either 2nd- or 3rd-up. I’m wary that he may fall into that pattern again but at better than (say) $6 I’m willing to find out.
Selections: 1. Deploy, 8. Organza, 9. New Universe, 6. Testashadow
1. Organza (5 stars)
2. Nicci’s Gold (4 stars)
3. Gaulois (4 stars)
ORGANZA (8) Flew home into 2nd last time at Ipswich. Appears well in this. FIRSTHAND (4) Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield. Will go well here. GAULOIS (10) Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd two runs back at Doomben and has a nice turn of foot. Could go well. DEPLOY (1) Couldn’t shake them off when 3rd two runs back at Scone and goes down in grade. At least a place chance
Race 8 #3 Jamaican Rain
1. Saunter Boy
2. Big Duke
Best Bet: Saunter Boy ($5.00)
Value Bet: Mazaz ($8.00)
Exotic: Box Exacta (1,2,5,6,8,10)
Race 8, No.3 Jamaican Rain – 4 stars
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Junipal; #14 Statuesquely
Race 6: Baccarat Baby
Race 7: Igraine – each-way
Race 8: Jamaican Rain
BACCARAT BABY (9) was outclassed but not disgraced when beaten 4L in the Group 1 Tiara last week. This suits better and has been racing well through the carnival with a Listed win and a couple of Group seconds. Only beaten half a length in the Queensland Guineas two back and is unbeaten here. JUNIPAL (2) ran on in the Queensland Guineas and was less than 2L behind Baccarat Baby. Produced an eye-catcher when charging home for second at Flemington when fresh. Peaking third up and can threaten. STATUESQUELY (14) is shaping up well with two wins and two seconds from just four starts. Close second at Randwick last time and won his only try at this distance. Can measure up. ASHARANI (12) charged home for a close second at Kensington last time. Contender. ZAVANCE (11) can improve with three runs under the belt.
IGRAINE (5) was held up in the straight in the Brisbane Cup so that can be forgiven. She had placed in her other two Queensland runs at Group 3 level including a nose second in the Chairman’s Handicap. Drawn to get the right run in transit and rates highly. SAUNTER BOY (4) improved his rating plenty when beaten only 1.3L at Listed level in Sydney last start. Has won two of four third up attempts so will be ready now and is proven at the distance. Threat. BIG DUKE (1) has placed in the Brisbane and Tatterall’s cups at his last two outings. Back 600m on a seven-day back up but is fit and close to a win. MAZAZ (8) chased hard and got close when placed in the Winter Cup at Rosehill. Drawn to feature. SOPRESSA (6) could control this from the rails draw. Can give a sight.
JAMAICAN RAIN (3) finds a much easier assignment after taking on Group 1 company at her two runs since a spell. Backs up after a good effort in the Tiara last week when beaten just 1.3L and has won third up before so should be peaking. Three-time winner at this trip and won her only visit to this course. Ready to win. ORGANZA (7) is another busting to win a race after placing at all three runs this time in, the latest when running on well for second at Listed level. Does her best work at this distance and is very consistent. Respect. CHAPTER AND VERSE (4) caught the eye charging home to place in the Eye Liner last start. Has a win and a placing from his only two appearances at this track. PLATINUM ANGEL (8) appreciated getting out to this distance when a close second in the Dane Ripper last time. At her peak now. MANAYA (6) has exotic claims on her resuming win two back.
15. Shijin (3 stars)
9. Baccarat Baby (3 stars)
14. Statuesquely (3 stars)
3. Starkers (3 stars)
1. Big Duke (5 stars)
14. Galaxy Guru (3 stars)
10. Travistee (3 stars)
5. Igraine (3 stars)
16. Cruze (3 stars)
4. Chapter And Verse (3 stars)
6. Manaya (3 stars)
15. Skate To Paris (3 stars)
First of the days features is the Guineas where Shijin & Statuesquely look the pair most likely to push on. I’ve settled on a couple of interstaters as the main hopes being JUNIPAL & ASHARANI, with the latter also engaged at Rosehill & drawn a better gate she’ll likely stay home however if not rates a definite winning chance in this. With that being the likely scenario I’ll lean JUNIPAL’s way, perfect gate, should be primed for this & has a 10 length win to his credit at his only wet track start (heavy). One to throw in the exotics is SLEEPY HEART who ran on well late last start.
Selections: 2. Junipal, 12. Asharani, 16. Sleepy Heart, 1. Leonardo Da Hinchi
The Caloundra Cup on a very likely heavy track will prove a real test for some of these, we need to look for those proven over the trip or further coupled with solid wet track form. BIG DUKE clearly ticks those boxes whereas I can’t say the same for the majority (if not all) of his rivals. The only query is him backing up from the 3000m race last week however he was off the same break two starts back when running 3rd in the Brisbane Cup. MAZAZ hasn’t seen heavy ground however has placed several times on soft, he’s a one batter who may appreciate it.
Selections: 1. Big Duke, 10. Travistee, 15. Heart Of Toorak
Capacity line up to go around in the Glasshouse this year which suggests the pace should be solid, JAMAICAN RAIN will just about lead off the inside, if not she’ll gain a good run just off the peace. She’s the defending champion having scored by almost 4 lengths in this race last year which was run on a Heavy (8) surface, this years could be even wetter which won’t concern her as she’s an absolute swimmer & last weeks close up Tiara run will have topped her off nicely. Last chance for NICCANOVA who did look to have his chance last start, in his favour here though are the wet conditions.
Selections: 3. Jamaican Rain, 2. Niccanova, 13. Snitch, 4. Chapter And Verse
BACCARAT BABY (9) Backing up quickly here. Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd two runs back at Eagle Farm and hard to fault at this distance. Looks a strong bet for punters. JUNIPAL (2) Good show to place 2nd two runs back at Flemington and always seems to find the line well. Better claims. ASHARANI (12) Good run when finishing 2nd last run at Kensington and will benefit with the weight drop. One for the trifectas and first fours in this race. STATUESQUELY (14) Brave effort to win two runs back at Warwick Farm but racing in stronger company today. Should come to hand quickly. Use betting as a guide.
BIG DUKE (1) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Eagle Farm and can go through the gears. Yet to fire this campaign. Expect bold showing and to run very well. SAUNTER BOY (4) Races well third up. Ran 3rd three runs back at Saint Cloud but up against stronger competition today. Chance to break through here and a could give a show. IGRAINE (5) Won’t be far away during the run. Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 3rd three runs back at Eagle Farm and looks well graded here. Winnable race. MAZAZ (8) Did its best work late when 3rd last time at Rosehill and will be well suited at the trip. Sound chances.
JAMAICAN RAIN (3) Boxed on gamely when 5th last run at Eagle Farm and having third run back from a break. A win looks likely. CHAPTER AND VERSE (4) Ran on strongly when 3rd last start at Ipswich. Has a nice turn of foot. Can surprise and by no means out of it. ORGANZA (7) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Ipswich and proven performer at this trip. Larry Cassidy is in form for this stable. Marginal chance. NICCANOVA (2) Was average finishing 10th last start at Eagle Farm. Should progress here and will be close.