The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 20 of the 2025 AFL season.
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Draftstars have a $50,000 fantasy sports contest for the Hawthorn v Carlton clash on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Hawthorn vs. Carlton |
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Carlton’s Charlie Curnow has rediscovered good form and Harry McKay is scheduled to return, but it’s hard to overlook Hawthorn. Over the past twelve months, the Hawks boast a 9-1 record (7-3 at the line) as the home favourite, while Carlton have gone 1-5 in the head-to-head and line as the away underdog. The key to Hawthorn’s success is defence. The Hawks have conceded just 64.8 points per game at home this season, which is the best record in the league. In both for and away games, Hawthorn have conceded just 74.3 points on average. They now take on a Carlton side that has seen 20 of it’s 24 games over the last twelve months go under the bookmaker’s total. This game will be played at the MCG, which has seen an average of 162.6 points per game this season. Carlton’s nine games at this venue this year averaged 148.4 total points. This saw eight of their nine games go under the total. Hawthorn have averaged 159.6 total points at the MCG, which saw six of their seven games go under the total. Due to Curnow kicking goals again and Harry McKay potentially returning, I will tack on some points to the 160.5 set by bookmakers. I will also back Carlton to keep the margin below 40.
My plays for this game are:
Hawthorn 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble)
Under 169.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
SGM: Hawthorn 1-39 & Under 170 at 2.80 (bet365)
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GWS vs. Sydney |
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This is a great game for the neutral. Sydney’s 5-1 run has seen them surge back into finals contention, but their chances remain slim and a defeat this week would put one nail in the coffin. All too happy to supply that nail are the Giants, who have suffered through five straight defeats to their NSW rivals. The Swans have won four in a row away against the Giants and they covered the line in their last seven away against GWS. This round looks like a prime opportunity for the Giants to end that streak, however. They have won and covered the line in their last five games and they only lost by a 14-point margin at the SCG in May. Sydney’s last two wins saw them fail to cover the line and last week’s performance against North Melbourne was particularly underwhelming. I expect this to be a competitive contest, so I prefer the margin market to the head-to-head.
I would back GWS 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
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Gold Coast vs. Brisbane |
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Queensland derbies tend to be low-scoring affairs and, with a high chance of rain on Saturday, that trend looks set to continue. The Suns have a reputation for being hampered in wet conditions, which explains why Brisbane have firmed since the markets opened. The Lions won and covered the line in their last four games. Brisbane also covered the line in their last four away fixtures. In the head-to-heads, Brisbane covered the line in their last three clashes against Gold Coast. In recent years the Lions have gone 7-3 as the away favourite against the Suns.
My plays for this game are:
Brisbane 1-39 at 2.25 (Dabble)
Under 164.5 at 1.50 (bet365)
SGM: Brisbane 1-39 & Under 170 at 2.75 (bet365)
Please keep an eye on the weather forecast. If rain doesn’t look likely, then I would stay on the sideline.
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Fremantle vs. West Coast |
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Fremantle have won eight of their last nine as they continue their hunt for a top-4 finish. Their wins over Hawthorn and Collingwood will have the Dockers feeling they can beat anyone. The only risk this week is complacency. West Coast limp into this game on the back of eight consecutive defeats. Their 1-17 record for the season speaks for itself. Their 56-105 home defeat to Richmond last week is particularly demoralising. The Eagles have gone 1-8 in the head-to-head and 3-6 at the line at Optus Stadium this year, so the home venue has provided no respite to their miserable campaign. Given that the Dockers are one of four teams tied on 48 points, they may opt to keep the foot down to improve their percentage this week. Clutching at straws, the two factors in West Coast’s favour is they have had an extra day’s rest compared to Fremantle and they haven’t had to travel, while the Dockers played in Melbourne last week. The 50.5 line looks about right, so I would simply back Fremantle in the head-to-head. Consider adding it to your multis.
I would back Fremantle in the head-to-head at 1.06 (Betfair).
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North Melbourne vs. Geelong |
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North Melbourne continue to be a three-quarter team. They work hard and stay in the contest for three quarters before they fall away in the fourth. They now take on Geelong, a side they have lost 13 games in a row to. The Cats covered the line in their last five wins over the Kangaroos. The average winning margin across those games was 69.8 and the median was 62. The good news for North Melbourne is Geelong have lost and failed to cover the line in their last three visits to Marvel Stadium. The bad news for North Melbourne is their own 3-24 record at this venue, going back to March, 2023. The Kangaroos have gone 1-6 at Marvel Stadium this season.
I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.11 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 25+ at 1.38 (Dabble).
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Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide |
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The last four meetings between the Crows and Power went under the total and, with wet weather forecast on Friday and Saturday, another low-scoring game looks likely. Adelaide’s last three games went under the total, while 9 of Port Adelaide’s 11 ‘away’ games over the last twelve months went under the total.
I would back Under 168.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
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Richmond vs. Collingwood |
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The Tigers have their tails up following rare back-to-back wins, while the Magpies are regrouping following rare back-to-back defeats. The Collingwood 1-39 pick is good value given Richmond have avoided 40+ margins of defeat in 8 of their last 18 losses. As for Collingwood, 11 of their last 18 wins were by 1-39 margins. The Tigers’ last two defeats to the Magpies were by 14 and 26 point margins. Showers are forecast for Saturday and Sunday, which could help put a dampener on the winning margin.
I would back Collingwood 1-39 at 2.65 (Dabble). This selection is as low as 2.40 with other major bookmakers at the time of writing.