The following are previews with betting tips for the Super Rugby AU Semi-final between the Reds and Rebels.
To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Saturday, 12 September
Reds vs. Rebels
View a detailed form guide for Reds vs. Rebels
The Reds’ defence strangled the Brumbies to win 26-7 in a dead rubber last week. This follows a 57-5 win over the Force and 19-3 win over the Rebels. The 15 points conceded in three games highlights the strong form of the Queenslanders’ defence, and so often in sport it’s the team with the best defence that wins the title. The Reds have lost only two of their last nine fixtures and they have gone 6-1 at home this season.
The Rebels needed to beat the Force by 4 points to qualify for the finals and they won 34-30 following a see-sawing contest to break Waratahs’ hearts. This helps erase memories of previous final-week defeats that saw them just miss out on the playoffs. The Rebels showed great composure to score and convert a last-gasp try, but conceding 30 points to the winless Force isn’t convincing form leading into the semi-final.
Betting: the Rebels don’t appear to have the flair and creativity in attack to trouble the Reds’ brick wall defence. The venue for this clash is a big factor in picking the Reds too, given their 6-1 home record in 2020. There are no clear trends in the line betting, with the Reds going 4-3 at home this year and 4-3 at home against the Rebels, so I will simply back the Reds in the head-to-head at 1.32 (Unibet).