The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, April 17. The focus is on the race card at Randwick, which features four Group 1 races: the Australian Oaks (Race 5), Sydney Cup (Race 7), Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Race 8) and Queen of the Turf Stakes (Race 9).
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Randwick Race 1: 1. Converge
Randwick Race 3: 1. Pandano
Randwick Race 7: 10. Favorite Moon and 13. Realm Of Flowers
Randwick Race 8: 7. Verry Elleegant and 1. Addeybb
Randwick Race 9: 1. Probabeel
Race 5: 2. Amarelinha
BEST BET: Realm of Flowers
EXOTIC: Boxed Trifecta: 7,8,9,10,12,13,15
1. Realm of Flowers
2. Favorite Moon
3. Spirit Ridge
4. She’s Ideel
5. Good Idea
BEST BET: Verry Elleegant
EXOTIC: Trifecta: 7/2/1,2,4,8
1. Verry Elleegant
4. Sir Dragonet
5. Think It Over
Race 9: 1. Probabeel – BEST BET
Race 10: 1. Tofane
Race 5: Hungry Heart (4.80) (win)
Race 6: Isotope (3.60) (win)
Race 7: Spirit Ridge (11.00, 3.50)(each way)
Race 8: Verry Elleegant (2.50) (win)
Race 9: Probabeel (2.50) (win)
CONVERGE (1) Fought on gamely when winning three runs back at Warwick Farm and won’t be far away during the run. Surprise if it doesn’t win with room to spare. MAURICE’S MEDAD (4) Bold effort to win last time at Hawkesbury and expecting to settle positively. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Will go well. ALEGRON (2) Third up from a spell. Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Mornington and gets a favourable alley. Winning chance in this line up. AKAHATA (6) Caught the eye when 2nd last time at Kembla Grange and carrying less weight this time. Chance in this field so include in exotics.
ELLSBERG (8) Had a comfortable win two runs back at Rosehill but resumes from a spell. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. One of the major players. PRIVATE EYE (2) Having second run back from a spell. Solid effort when winning two runs back at Rosehill. Ready to win. ACROPHOBIC (5) Second up from a spell. Made up considerable ground when 4th last run at Warwick Farm and carrying less weight this time. Looks set to run a place. HOLYFIELD (1) First up from a break. Left nothing to chance when winning three runs back at Rosehill and easy to come into at the distance. Looks to have a good chance of placing.
GREAT NEWS (7) Third up. Showed promise when winning two runs back at Gosford. Likely to be first past the post. PANDANO (1) Left nothing to chance when winning last run at Newcastle and let up. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Serious contender. CRISTAL BREEZE (4) Came in 3rd last time at Warwick Farm and gets some weight relief. Displays good tactical speed. Not without claims. ANIMATE (2) Good run when placing 2nd last run at Warwick Farm and dropping weight today. Looks a chance.
NAJMATY (2) Won last run at Caulfield and should race just behind the speed. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many starts. Strongly consider. CRYSTAL BOUND (5) Shot clear to win last run at Moonee Valley and fitter for debut run. The one they all have to beat. TRIFACCIA (7) Let up. Came on strongly when 3rd last start at this course. Must respect in this event. ARCADED (1) Bold effort to win last start at Rosehill but up in class. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Going well this preparation winning 3 from 4 attempts. Can get the job done.
HARMONY ROSE (4) Solid effort when winning three runs back at the track. Shows good early pace. Is in good order and can run well. MONTEFILIA (1) Ran on strongly when 3rd two runs back at Rosehill and backs up quickly today. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race. AMARELINHA (2) Handy enough when winning last run at Trentham. Should enjoy a cosy run off the pace. Worth consideration. HUNGRY HEART (3) Won narrowly last time at Rosehill and will be trying to topple them late. Has won 2 from 4 starts this preparation. Include in chances.
SEPTEMBER RUN (8) Rattled home nicely into 2nd three runs back at Flemington and strong performer at this distance. Possesses good closing speed. Go well. ISOTOPE (9) Having second run back from a spell. Game effort to win last time at Rosehill and shows good closing speed. Go close. WILD RULER (1) Third up from a break. Won two runs back at this track but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Major player. DAME GISELLE (10) Outgunned at the finish when 3rd last run at Rosehill but rises in weight. Looks a great place bet.
FAVORITE MOON (10) Brave effort to win last start at Rosehill and second up. Should just about get the run of the race. Must respect. REALM OF FLOWERS (13) Managed to run into 2nd last run at Rosehill and goes down in weight. Has been a model of consistency since returning from a spell. Massive hope. SOUTHERN FRANCE (2) Third up from a spell. Should bounce back from the last run when 7th at Rosehill. Looking for an improved run and carrying less weight this time. Underrated. SHE’S IDEEL (12) Nice run finishing 2nd last time at Rosehill and carrying less weight this time. Possesses very good finishing speed. Not without claims
VERRY ELLEEGANT (7) Chimed in with a win last time at Rosehill and suited at this trip historically. Making headway every start and rates strongly. ADDEYBB (1) Could build on a strong second up record. Finished on top two runs back at Ascot. Looks promising. SIR DRAGONET (2) Bold effort to win last time at Rosehill and can find a nice position from the draw. Expecting to settle just off the pace. One of the major players. MUGATOO (3) Backing up quickly. Game effort to win two runs back at Moonee Valley but rises in weight today. Respect against this field.
PROBABEEL (1) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at Caulfield and likely to race off the speed. Going well this preparation winning 2 from 3 starts. Making headway every start and rates strongly. ODEUM (11) Having third run back from a break. Placed 2nd last run at Rosehill and suited by the weight drop. Should be right in the finish. COLETTE (2) Tidy effort when 2nd three runs back around here and drops back to a suitable class. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Must come into consideration. VANGELIC (12) Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd two runs back at this venue but goes up in weight today. Displays good tactical speed. Chance.
ENTRIVIERE (3) Chimed in with a win last run at Ellerslie and easy to come into at the trip. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Capable of getting into the money. WANDABAA (11) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last start at Rosehill and having third run back from a break. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Strong claims. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (5) Third up from a spell. Game effort to win two runs back at Rosehill and hard to fault at this distance. Up to these. SEASONS (7) Having third run back from a spell. Solid win last time at Rosehill and gets a favourable alley. Won’t be far away.
Race 1: Converge
Race 2: Ellsberg
Race 3: Great News and Pandano
Race 4: Najmaty
Race 5: Montefilia
Race 6: September Run
Race 7: Favourite Moon
Race 8: Verry Elleegant
Race 9: Probabeel
Race 10: California Zimbol
A bumper card for the middle Randwick pin of the Championships. Rail to 3 metres and conditions on Wednesday were ranked Soft 5. There is a chance of a minor shower on Friday but we should be threatening Good conditions on the day I would think, if not at the start then maybe during the course of. The first event sees 2YOs stepping out to the mile. CONVERGE has to give them all weight but fair enough; he does come through some relatively strong races and can find the front here without too much fuss. AKAHATA and ARNAQUEUR out of a Kembla Maiden but both appealingly on the up.
Selections: 1. Converge (Top Tip), 6. Akahata, 2. Alegron, 3. Arnaqueur
Pace provided by 6, 9, 8 and 1. Prepared to forgive PRIVATE EYE a (slightly) flat run in a better race last start. This will tell us more I suppose, whether he’s merely an off-season ‘star’ or something better, but I’m inclined to believe the latter. His Darby Munro run was similar to that of Matchmaker who emerged from it to win a G3 last week. Meanwhile, PRIVATE came from last to easily win an April 9 trial here. HOLYFIELD could be somewhat forgotten about perhaps. Happy to see him fresh at 1400m, his best distance. ELLSBERG will also have some fans and no argument from me.
Selections: 2. Private Eye (Top Tip), 1. Holyfield, 8. Ellsberg, 4. Kukeracha
Speed looks assured with 3, 6, 7, 8, 1 all prone to racing forward. GREAT NEWS is offered a wide draw so early work crucial for her. Can she work her way across without using up too much field? Her Gosford win (in which she beat four of today’s rivals clearly) showed of course that she doesn’t have to race forward but from this gate I dare say they try their hand. Consistency and class no issue with her. PANDANO has had 7 weeks since beating some handy opposition at Newcastle. Could find gun run here. Kris Lees always has a strong hand in these of course (6 plus an emergency today). Several with some hope but only ANIMATE makes my top five.
Selections: 7. Great News (Top Tip), 1. Pandano, 9. Electric Girl, 2. Animate
Some very promising young fillies here and they race for a million plus. Expect 5 to lead 10, 9 and 1. A couple of these girls have made quite the impression in Melbourne and head up for the big money. CRYSTAL BOUND was totally dominant at the Valley 4 weeks ago. 1000m to 1200m her challenge but she seems to have plenty of class. NAJMATY was in a different league in her Caulfield win as well, beating subsequent winner Hunnam about 3L. That gelding had previously been 6L in arrears of CRYSTAL at MV (but was fresh that day). ARCADED unblemished bar a forgive run in a G1.
Selections: 5. Crystal Bound (Top Tip), 2. Najmaty, 1. Arcaded, 7. Trifaccia
Not a lot of pace in the Oaks at all. Expect HARMONY ROSE to take things up again. 10 and 1 can be handiest and even HUNGRY HEART probably won’t be as far back as she was last time. She came from the tail to claim HARMONY ROSE in the obvious lead-up, and now the extra distance is perhaps even more in her favour (??) but I just wonder whether HARMONY – being one run behind HUNGRY in her prep – has a touch more improvement. AMARELINHA won as expected in the NZ Oaks. How that form measures up is always a question but her trial recently saw her winning by 5L even after making a mess of the start. Inclined to respect.
Selections: 4. Harmony Rose (Top Tip), 2. Amarelinha, 3. Hungry Heart, 1. Montefilia
Super race! Pace from 5 and 7 and there’s not much else getting busy here. In a race where WILD RULER draws widest, I just wonder whether he can slot in here for a decent run not too far back. That wasn’t the case in the Galaxy; he had to go right back and faced a task from there. Still decent getting home I thought and a return to Randwick (3 from 3) looks a positive. ISOTOPE was rock-solid at Rosehill and she should track nicely at midfield. A return to Sydney could be good for SEPTEMBER RUN…..or??? Not sure gate 1 is what she’s after but at her best she’s damn good, and could rush by them.
Selections: 1. Wild Ruler (Top Tip), 9. Isotope, 6. Amish Boy, 3. Rocketing By
Speed from 8, 9, 14 and 15 in the Cup. FAVORITE MOON may have some doubters because stablemate Young Rascal won the Manion fresh last year (beating Mugatoo thanks very much) and then was a disappointing fave in the Cup, but this is a different horse and a different year and I just see him getting lovely favours from his barrier. REALM OF FLOWERS made good ground on him late there of course and she had covered plenty of extra ground in the run. Proven at two miles so obviously a big threat. SHE’S IDEEL new to the 3200m but after running on so strongly at G1 level last time I think she’s in the mix for sure.
Selections: 10. Favorite Moon (Top Tip), 12. She’s Ideel, 13. Realm Of Flowers, 1. The Chosen One
SAMADOUBT the nominal leader with ADDEYBB landing handy. Was all set to tip the Haggas horse (slight change of headgear, maybe a touch more improvement?) but in the end I’ve switched to VERRY ELLEEGANT. Any improvement ADDEYBB has she can probably match as she has offered some of her very best wins 4th-up – the Oaks on this day two years ago, a 4L Tancred romp last year, and of course the Caulfield Cup. Drier conditions on offer for both today and we know they would prefer it softer but hoping for another stirring clash. When the likes of MUGATOO and SIR DRAGONET appear second stringers you know you’ve got a high level race on your hands. Can’t wait.
Selections: 7. Verry Elleegant (Top Tip), 1. Addeybb, 3. Mugatoo, 2. Sir Dragonet
GREYSFUL GLAMOUR the standout leader. 10 can go forward on her day but we’ll see whether is one of her days. 12 and 11 certainly handy. PROBABEEL should find conditions to suit after very much hating that rainfall in All-Star Mile day. Still she was sent out fave there but by race time she may as well have been ten times her price. She has come back to win a trial here on April 9 (on Heavy as it happens, coming from way back) and she can find the perfect trail from this draw. Not denying the fillies ODEUM and VANGELIC who can both see cushy runs on the speed and I’m not prepared to pot COLETTE, even on dryish ground.
Selections: 1. Probabeel (Best of the Day), 4. Nimalee, 2. Colette, 11. Odeum
2, 12, 13 the main pace. 9 handy from the low draw. 5 and 6 could press up as well. Should be relatively willing. Happy to be in again with WANDABAA, safe in the knowledge that poor runs of any description are simply not her go. Might even get tot rack a bit closer than she normally does, and certainly closer than she has been in her latest two. ENTRIVIERE, only once beaten at home, draws way way out but with any luck (and pending pattern) could be a threat. Plenty of others worth though. Is FASIKA able to find her best again? She was favourite in this last year (ran 2nd) but the two spring runs were on the so-so side.
Selections: 11. Wandabaa (Value Bet), 3. Entriviere, 8. Tricky Gal, 5. California Zimbol
Race 3 #1 Pandano (2.80) – BEST BET
Race 6 #8 September Run (3.30) – LAY BET
Race 8 #1 Addeybb (3.00)
Race 9 #12 Vangelic (16.00) – VALUE BET
Ciaron’s Tip: Hungry Heart (5.00) (win)
Junior’s Tip: Bargain (12.00, 3.20) (each way)
Junior’s Tip: Realm Of Flowers (5.50, 2.10) (each way)
Ciaron’s Tip: Southern France (7.00) (win)
Ciaron’s Tip: Sir Dragonet (6.50) (win)
Junior’s Tip: Addeybb (2.90) (win)
Ciaron’s Tip: Probabeel (2.50) (win)
Junior’s Tip: Colette (7.50, 2.35) (each way)