AFL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 7.

Friday, May 15

Essendon vs North Melbourne 7:50PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

This is a huge game in the context of the season for these two clubs. They are in an almost identical position regarding season 2015. They have their sights set on being major challengers in the September action, they are 3-3, and they’ve played some great footy mixed in with some really poor patches that have raised the usual question marks.

I’m hopeful, and quietly confident, that this will be a tight contest and a really great game of footy to watch. Friday night games this season have a lot to answer for to the average footy fan. The smallest margin in the six games played so far is 27 points, which was in Richmond’s Round 1 win over the Blues. The average margin is a whopping 53 points. 

We’re due for a close one, but I’m finding this game tough to tip. Who knows what effect the WADA appeal will have on the Bombers. Will it be a distraction and weigh them down, or will it light a fire under them that they’ll turn on the Kangaroos? 

Barring the WADA effect, I think the Kangaroos are slightly better placed than the Bombers and should be able to get the points if they play their best footy, so I’m going to go with them in a close one.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Kangaroos by 1-24 @ $3.35 (Unibet)

Saturday, May 16

Adelaide vs St Kilda 1:45PM AEST, Adelaide Oval

 

The Saints are full of pep from an inspiring come-from-behind victory against the Bulldogs last Saturday at Etihad. Although they were fairly poor in the first half, they’re definitely forgiven for that given their second half efforts. 

The Crows await them at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon, who are coming off an easy win against the Gold Coast reserves. It will be another uphill battle for the Saints, but they’re definitely going along much better than most people predicted they would be, so you can’t totally write them off.

I expect the Crows to be too good at home, and feel that the Saints may be in for a slight let down after a big game last week, as is the way for young sides.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Crows by 40+ @ $2.36 (Palmerbet)

Hawthorn vs Melbourne 2:10PM AEST, MCG

 

Hawthorn, at full strength, are still arguably the best team in the competition, but they’ve had an indifferent start to the season, heading into Round 7 at 3-3. They’ve dropped games they would expect to win against Essendon and GWS, as well as losing a 50-50 game against the Power. They aren’t blaming the loss to GWS on Hodge and Lewis, but if those two play that game then they don’t lose. Some of their other players will need to step up to carry the load against the Dees, because they just can’t afford to drop another game to a club that they should be banking the points against. 

Last week, Melbourne faced the Swans coming off a poor loss. This week, they’ve got the Hawks in the same boat. Not ideal at all. They’ll be wondering what they’ve done to deserve such rotten luck. I think they’re in for another weekend of pain before their draw eases up prior to the bye.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Hawks by 40+ @ $1.92 (Luxbet)

Carlton vs GWS Giants 4:35PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

Things are getting serious at Princes Park. The Blues are struggling big time on the the field. They’ve just lost to the previously winless Lions, and have only managed the one win against the Saints. There’s talk of trading big names out come the end of the season in return for high draft picks in order to hasten the inevitable rebuild process they’ve got ahead of them. I’d say it’s almost a good thing that this has happened and the pressure has heaped on them, because it’s made them realise that they’re in a bad way and need to take some action urgently. A few more wins may have just papered over the cracks, so to speak.

Unfortunately for them, it’s only Round 7, so there’s a long way to go before they can start looking at making list changes. The main job for the rest of the season is to find out which of their players are up to it, who they should keep and put serious development time into, and who should be put up as trade bait. At the same time, they also obviously need to be doing their best to win some games of footy, for the sake of their fans as well as their players. It’s no fun being at a club that loses every week.

GWS have just had one of their best wins in club history, toppling the reigning premiers. There’s a chance they take the foot off the pedal slightly against the Blues, which you just can’t afford to do in this competition. GWS are the much better side, but given the circumstances of Carlton being under extreme pressure and GWS possibly feeling pretty good about themselves, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blues get up.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Blues to win @ $2.70 (10Bet)

Sydney vs Geelong 7:20PM AEST, ANZ Stadium

 

The Cats seem to have settled into the season in the past couple of weeks. Their win against the Pies on Friday night was super impressive; many people probably thought they weren’t capable of playing that calibre of footy anymore. This will be a great test of where they’re truly at, travelling to Sydney to play against a genuine top four side.

The last time the Cats made the trip to face the Swans at the SCG they were absolutely belted, going down by 110 points in round 11 of last season. They won’t have forgotten that, and they’ll be keen to give a much better account of themselves this time around. The Swans are a much better side and should get the win relatively comfortably at home, but I’m expecting the Cats to make them earn it.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Swans by 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

West Coast vs Gold Coast 7:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

The Eagles finally took a big scalp last weekend. One of the biggest possible in fact, handing the Power a rare hometown defeat. After not being able to beat a top 8 side all of last season, they’ve finally shown that they don’t just beat up on the average sides, and that their best is capable of beating the best. The Eagles have actually done extremely well to be sitting 4-2 considering their horrible run with injuries. They’re probably not getting quite enough credit for how they’re playing at the moment, but that’s just part of life being an AFL team that’s not based in Melbourne. 

Speaking of injuries, has a team ever been hit as hard as this current Gold Coast team? Rocket Eade says they won’t be able to field a reserves side this week, and he’s not joking. Fortunately, the three players that were under a club imposed suspension will be eligible for selection this week, and they’ll need them. I can’t see a club struggling this much with injuries being able to compete for four quarters. If you’re an Eagles fan in Perth, head down to the game this weekend if you want to witness a big, big win.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Eagles at the line of -47.5 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

1 unit – Round Highest Scoring Team: West Coast @ $6.50 (Centrebet)

Sunday, May 17

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle 1:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

The Fremantle express continued on it’s merry way last weekend, while the Dogs’ bandwagon ran out of gas half way through a fairly pedestrian run. The young Dogs were clearly exhausted after half time, due to a combination of their slog against the Swans the previous week and a couple of injuries late in the 2nd quarter to midfielders Clay Smith and Koby Stevens. The injury to Clay Smith, his third ACL rupture at just 22 years of age, may have played on the minds of his teammates. They came out in the second half and looked like witches hats, allowing the Saints to run rampant and reign in a massive 55 point lead. 

They have an eight day break to rest up and recover for this huge test against the current team-to-beat in the Dockers, who seem to be winning games with ease at the moment. I can’t see anyone outside of Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide getting anywhere near the Dockers on their current form and expect them to keep on cruising this weekend. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dockers by 40+ @ $2.76 (Palmerbet)

Richmond vs Collingwood 3:20PM AEST, MCG

 

This is one of the toughest games of the round to tip in my eyes. The Tigers are just one of those teams that you never feel comfortable about tipping. They look like an average side, but we know that they’re capable of more. They can play some outstanding footy when they’re on. However, it’s starting to look like that’s the exception and not the rule, and that they really are just an average team. 

The Pies had been outstanding until a hiccup last Friday night against the Cats. I think they’ll bounce back this week with a win over the Tigers, but am expecting a close game.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Pies to win @ $1.61 (LuxBet)

Brisbane vs Port Adelaide 4:40PM AEST, The Gabba

 

The Lions finally got their first win of the season last week against the Blues. They played some good footy, especially in the second half, and thoroughly deserved the win. I hope they enjoyed it, because I think they’re going to cop a belting this week against Port, who will be furious at losing to Eagles at home last weekend.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Power by 40+ @ $2.46 (Palmerbet)

Season Tally

Units Wagered: 30

Units Won: 29.35