Saturday Horse Racing Tips – March 10, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 10. The focus is on the Newmarket Handicap and Australian Cup at Flemington, plus the Canterbury States and Randwick Guineas at Randwick. Ascot and Doomben are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the weekend

Flemington Race 5, No. 3 Summer Sham
Randwick Race 2 No.3 Houtzen – LAY BET (bet against this horse)
Randwick Race 9 No.8, Alward

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 3, No. 2 Max Almighty – 3 stars
Race 4, No. 1 Battle Hero – 4 stars
Race 8, No. 7 Hoboken – 3.5 stars

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 4 #7 Royal Missile

Doomben

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 3, No. 7 Aquatic – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 5, No. 1 Fortensky – 4 stars

Flemington

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 5 Kings Will Dream – 4.5 stars
Race 3, No. 6 Portman – 4 stars
Race 5, No. 3 Summer Sham – BEST BET – 4.5 stars

Race 6 – Newmarket Handicap
Top 5:
1 – Rich Charm
2 – Booker
3 – Supido
4 – Merchant Navy
5 – Redkirk Warrior
Best Bet: Rich Charm to WIN ($7.50)
Best Value: Supido EACH WAY ($13.00/$4.00)
Quinella: 4, 6, 14 ($20 for 666.67%)
First 4: 1, 4, 6, 11, 14 ($40 for 33.33%)

Race 8 – Australian Cup
Top 5:
1 – Single Gaze
2 – Almandin
3 – Hartnell
4 – Gailo Chop
5 – Harlem
Best Bet: Single Gaze to WIN ($8.50)
Quinella: 1, 2, 11 ($20 for 666.67%)
First 4: 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11 ($40 for 33.33%)

Quaddie: 1, 4, 6, 11, 14 / 1, 3 / 1, 2, 11 / 1, 3, 6, 11

Betfair – Race Assessment:

Race 6:
BACK – THRONUM – Bet to WIN at > $7.50 – Stake 0.5% of your total bank.

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 4:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #5 Seberate; #14 Nasaayim

Race 5:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #4 Counterplay; #3 Summer Sham; #14 Honey Esprit

Race 6:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Rich Charm; #11 Merchant Navy

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Samovare
Lay – #1 Shillelagh

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #4 Gailo Chop

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #5 Kings Will Dream
Race 3 #6 Portman
Race 7 #5 Spanish Reef

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 6: No.1, REDKIRK WARRIOR

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 2:
Back Kings Will Dream (2.20) to win

Race 6 – Newmarket Handicap
Back Brave Smash (7.50) and Thronum (13.00) to win.
If outlaying 10 units have 7 units on Brave Smash and 3 units on Thronum.

Race 8 – Australian Cup
My Tips
1. The Taj Mahal
2. Gailo Chop
3. Hartnell
4. Ambitious
Suggested Bet(s):
Back The Taj Mahal (7.00) to win and have a spec at Ambitious (23.00).
If spending 10 units, have 6 units on The Taj Mahal, 1 unit on Ambitious and hold 3 units for Gailo Chop if he reaches 4.50.
If Gailo holds around the 2.80 mark, then increase the bets to 8 units The Taj Mahal and 2 units Ambitious.

Palmerbet – G1 Preview:

Race 6:
1. MISSROCK, 2. Merchant Navy, 3. Thronum, 4. Redkirk Warrior

Race 8:
1. THE TAJ MAHAL, 2. Homesman, 3. Single Gaze, 4. Gailo Chop

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 2,3,6,8
Race 2: 3,5,6,7
Race 3: 3,6,11,12
Race 4: 2,3,6,14
Race 5: 1,3,7,8
Race 6: 1 Redkirk Warrior, 2 Brave Smash, 5 Rock Magic, 9 Ken’s Dream
Race 7: 1,2,3,5
Race 8: 1 Hartnell, 2 Almandin, 4 Gailo Chop, 6 Supply and Demand
Race 9: 3,5,7,8

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
Can make a case for most! 3YO MERCHANT NAVY made terrific return in slowly run Rubiton at 1100m. Month off into 1200m here ideal. RICH CHARM finished alongside him and never had full momentum. They were both a touch better than Hellbent, who then very nearly won Oakleigh Plate beating 3YOs BOOKER (wide/huge) and CATCHY (slow out/race over! ran well). Note: Merchant Navy’s Coolmore win rated every bit as well as Rich Charm’s on same (Derby) day. Catchy, Booker rated similarly to REDKIRK WARRIOR here in Sept. If Redkirk repeats fresh win, he goes close despite handicap. ROCK MAGIC, SUPIDO overs?
Selections 11 Merchant Navy, 15 Catchy, 14 Booker, 4 Rich Charm

Race 7:
SPEED: 5 may lead 4 with any of 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 handy so tactics key? SAMOVARE made an early move off that slow speed in Mannerism fresh and battled well behind a proper G1 mare. She beat home MONTOYA’S SECRET, who did close well off said slow speed. Samovare’s latest second up run she was too classy for recent Flemington winner SPANISH REEF giving her 3kg. She then beat high-class males in Naturalism. SHILLELAGH has found line nicely both runs back with tempo/pattern against her. Last third-up run (and last 1600m run) she beat the males in a G1 Cantala Stakes sitting closer to speed!
Selections 3 Samovare, 1 Shillelah, 2 Montoya’s Secret, 5 Spanish Reef

Race 8:
SPEED: 6 may lead 4 with 10, 11 handy. 1, 9, 12 off those? GAILO CHOP has come back super: two dominant wins and latest was in fast time over SINGLE GAZE and HARTNELL. They gapped the rest. Gailo Chop has a 3-zip record over Single Gaze. However, Single Gaze’s latest third-up run she was arguably better than ”Gailo” when given a very busy run on strong speed. THE TAJ MAHAL beat home Gailo in the Mackinnon Stakes. DEVISE is a hope on the Bonneval form. AMBITIOUS could have trialled better but has the scalp of the mighty Kitasan Black.
Selections 11 Single Gaze, 4 Gailo Chop, 9 The Taj Mahal, 1 Hartnell

Race 9:
Potential trap trace with key hopes PREZADO and REGIMEN drawn inside gates (hashtag: not ideal). I’m forgiving PREZADO for Rubiton Stakes miss when ridden too warm. He made Nature Strip work to beat him prior. REGIMEN is a class filly. Loved her trial before flashing at the wire in Typhoon Tracy under light ride after finding plenty of strife. SHE’S SO HIGH has been on the heels of Shoals and Booker. That is G1 form. She jumped out quite well. STREETS OF AVALON a hope on the Zeditave run, which ties in FREEZE OVER. TWILIGHT SONG beat two fillies who both then ran well in that Typhoon Tracy.
Selections 3 Regimen, 1 Prezado, 6 Twilight Song, 7 She’s So High

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 6:
BRAVE SMASH Raced on the speed before winning the Futurity at Caulfield last start. First go up the straight and back to 1200m somewhat of a query but still one of the main chances. REDKIRK WARRIOR Charged home late to nail Redzel on the line in the Lightning last start. Won this race last year with 52.5kg on his back. 57.5kg this time a query but loves the straight and has to be a key player. KEN’S DREAM Is chasing back to back wins up the straight but a benchmark win last time out doesn’t look strong enough for a Group 1. ROCK MAGIC Worked home solidly finishing on the placegetters heels in the Lightning. Rates a place chance fitter second-up.

Race 7:
SAMOVARE Worked home nicely when runner-up in the Mannerism resuming last start. She’s unbeaten second-up and two from two at the distance. She’s a definite chance launching from the inside gate. SHILLELAGH Wasn’t far from the winner in the C.F Orr resuming two runs back before finishing down the track in the Futurity last start. Much better placed against her own sex and she is a genuine winning chance. MONTOYA’S SECRET Was placed in the Mannerism at Caulfield last start and is ready to win peaking third-up. SPANISH REEF Did a good job to win at Flemington resuming last start. Has won up to the mile so no worries stepping up in distance and is expected to be in the finish again.

Race 8:
GAILO CHOP Is unbeaten in two runs this preparation winning the TS Carlyon Cup at Caulfield resuming before controlling the speed in front to win the Peter Young last start. Has won six races at 2000m and is the one to beat from an on speed position again. ALMANDIN Just a half a run short resuming in the Mornington Cup Prelude when he just missed. The 2016 Melbourne Cup winner who is right in the mix fitter second-up. HARTNELL Has returned in good order winning the CF Orr resuming two runs back before working to the line in the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield last start. Has a superb third-up record winning four times with two runner-up finishes from seven starts. He should be right at his peak and is the one to beat. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Was nailed on the line in the Parramatta Cup at Rosehill last start. Makes his own luck on the pace and is not without a place chance.

Race 9:
SHE’S SO HIGH Resumes without a trial for Mick Price. She was Stakes placed in her first preparation and finished fourth in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. Only has to be close to right to be the one to beat. VAINSTREAM Is unbeaten in her two runs to date with successive victories at Moe in his first preparation. This is toughest test to date but looked primed for a first-up win winning his lead-up trial at Cranbourne. REGIMEN Was held-up at a vital time before working home nicely finishing on the placegetters heels in the Typhoon Tracy resuming last start. Was a Canterbury winner second-up last preparation and is right in play at the same stage of her preparation here. FREEZE OVER Has won two from five including a Moonee Valley win two runs back before placing at Moonee Valley last start. Still has scope for improvement and is one of the key chances again.

Morphettville

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 4 #10 Exalted Lauretta

Randwick

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 1, No. 4 Nettoyer – 3.5 stars
Race 5, No. 7 Super Too – each-way – 2.5 stars
Race 6, No. 6 Invincible Gem – 4.5 stars
Race 8, No. 7 Slow Burn – 3.5 stars

Race 7 – Randwick Guineas
Best Bet: D’argento to WIN ($5.00)
Best Value: Kaonic EACH WAY ($21/$5)
Quinella: 3, 10, 12 ($20 for 666.67%)
First: 4 2, 3, 7, 10, 12 ($40 for 33.33%)

Quaddie: 1, 2, 6 / 3, 10, 12 / 4, 7, 9 / 2, 3, 8, 12

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #3 Houtzen
Race 3 #3 Estijaab

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 2, No.3, HOUTZEN – LAY BET (bet against this horse)
Race 8, No.1, RAVI – VALUE BET
Race 9, No.8, ALWARD – BEST BET

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 8:
Back Sugar Bella (3.80) to win

Race 9:
Back Alward (4.00) to win

Palmerbet – G1 Preview:

Race 6:
1. HAPPY CLAPPER, 2. Clearly Innocent, 3. Tulip, 4. Invincible Gem

Race 7:
1. TRAPEZE ARTIST, 2. Kementari, 3. Pierata, 4. Kaonic

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 3,4,6,8
Race 2: 3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1,2,3,4
Race 4: 1,2,3,8
Race 5: 1,2,5,9
Race 6: 1 Happy Clapper, 7 Global Glamour, 8 Showtime, 9 Tulip
Race 7: 3 Kementari, 5 Pierata, 7 Peaceful State, 10 D’Argento
Race 8: 1,5,7,9
Race 9: 2,4,5,8

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 6:
8 to lead 7 in what is a ripper G1 lineup. 6 and 5 probably next in running. CLEARLY INNOCENT was a tragedy beaten 1st-up. Clearly he lost significantly more ground than his final beaten margin and there will be no inside runs sought today. Keep it simple – get back, hook out. Potentially doing the very same thing will be HAPPY CLAPPER (14 for 5:6:1 with Shinn riding) although he has drawn to possibly try and save some ground if there are gaps opening up. ENDLESS DRAMA and GLOBAL GLAMOUR revery marginally from 1400m but are in the mix. TULIP is no slouch, clearly. Her MV was encouraging and she did beat CLEARLY INNOCENT home in the Everest.
Selections 2 Clearly Innocent, 1 Happy Clapper, 9 Tulip, 3 Endless Drama

Race 7:
Surely we want to see SIEGE OF QUEBEC lead this race. I don’t think taking a sit is working that well for him. Find the front, kick on and do your thing. I will have to save (small) on him but realistically there are others to rank ahead. Obviously KEMENTARI for starters. I still think he’s improving into this prep and if he can let a few others go ahead of him today he will find himself in the perfect spot 3rd-up out to a trip at which he’s well proven. PEACEFUL STATE is a fascinating runner. Switching states on a 7 day turnaround, I’m not in the habit of doubting his trainer’s decisions, particularly G1 decisions.
Selections 3 Kementari, 7 Peaceful State, 5 Pierata, 11 Siege of Quebec

Race 8:
Dubious speed from this assembly of mares. 3, 5, 6 and 7 might have to sort out the tempo. SUGAR BELLA has the draw to settle just off the pacesetters and her comeback from a long layoff has been outstanding. Freshened up 8 weeks, clearly she has been classes above her off-season Benchmark opposition and she will need to be to win this of course. ALL OVER BOSANOVA trialled really nicely recently (ahead of SLOW BURN) and she has already mixed in good company in QLD. RAVI beat PERIZADA when resuming in a similar race at Rosehill last Spring. Pays for that by going up to 59 kilos.
Selections 9 Sugar Bella, 5 All Over Bosanova, 1 Ravi, 4 Perizada

Race 9:
The majority of these (all but 2, 4, 8 and 13 in fact) are also nommed for Sunday’s $200K Canberra Cup so we are bound to lose at least a few. Pace from 5, 3, 10 and 11. (Hopefully at least a couple of those four are here!) SHOW A STAR has had only sporadic attempts at this distance but most of them suggest the trip is not a worry in and of itself. He’s had a fair grounding this prep to jump up to the ten furlongs again. And he could cross and control proceedings? SINGING had cardiac arrhythmia last start so we forgive that totally. Was in peak form prior and has trialled well since. EMPEROR’S WAY flying and hard to leave out. Then the Waller foursome – each worth some thought.
Selections 5 Show A Star, 3 Singing, 12 Emperor’s Way, 8 Alward

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 6:
TULIP Was an impressive winner in the Typhoon Tracy at Moonee Valley last start. Hasn’t won beyond 1200m and yet to place in three Randwick runs but still one of the key chances down in the weights GLOBAL GLAMOUR Took Endless Drama the entire Randwick straight to run her down last start. She should be right at her peak and will take plenty of running down again. SHOWTIME Finished runner-up in the Expressway resuming before placing in the Futurity at Caulfield last start. Should be at his peak third-up and is worth including in the wider exotics. HAPPY CLAPPER The Epsom winner resuming on the back of two trials. Invariably pulls out a solid run fresh and did win the Tramway first-up in the Spring. Don’t under estimate him fresh.

Race 7:
PIERATA Worked home nicley chasing home Kementari in the Hobartville last start after winning the three-year-old Guineas on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and rates as one of the key chances launching from the inside gate. KEMENTARI The Caulfield Guineas runner-up in the Spring and has been ultra-impressive in his two runs this time in winning the Eskimo Prince and Hobartville. There is nothing to suggest he isn’t the horse to beat again. D’ARGENTO Is a promising So You Think colt who won his first three starts before hitting the line strongly when just over a length from Kementari in the Hobartville last start. Still has scope for improvement and has to rate as one of the key chances. PEACEFUL STATE Backs up after finishing runner-up in the Australian Guineas at Flemington last week. Looks to have some upside and goes in all the exotics.

Race 8:
SUGAR BELLA Has been working through the grades in impressive fashion winning five of her six starts. This is the acid test but reckon she is right up to the task and is right in the mix. RAVI Resumes on the back of successive trial placings at Randwick. Invariably pulls out a solid run fresh and did win the Group III Sheraco first-up last preparation. She’s the one to beat if she replicates that run here. ALL OVER BOSANOVA Is having her first NSW run since entering the John O’Shea stable and did finish runner-up in a recent Randwick trial. Has won five of her 10 career starts to date and shouldn’t be under-estimated fresh. SLOW BURN Showed plenty of promise in her first two preparations winning three of her seven starts. Resumes here and is unbeaten first-up and is a must for the wider exotics.

Race 9:
SHOW A STAR Won successive races at Rosehill and Warwick Farm before finishing a close second at Rosehill last start. Still to be proven at the trip but he will be right on the speed and could take plenty of catching if left alone in front. PATRICK ERIN Is an import having his first Australian start for Chris Waller and as the winner of ten races from 21-starts shouldn’t be under-estimated with Hugh Bowman in the saddle TALLY Was well beaten at Flemington resuming but is would be no surprise to see a sharp improvement fitter second-up stepping up in distance ALWARD Was desperately unlucky not to get the money at Rosehill resuming when he only saw clear running over the final 100m. Has won second-up previously and gets the chance to make amends

 

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