Saturday Horse Racing Tips – April 7, 2018

The following is a selection of Australian racing tips for Saturday, April 7. The focus is on the first day of the Championships at Randwick, which includes the four Group 1 races: the Inglis Sires, Australian Derby, TJ Smith Stakes and Doncaster Mile. Bendigo, Ascot, Morphettville and Toowoomba are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

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Best bets of the day

Randwick Race 2: No.1 Holy Snow
Randwick Race 3, No. 6 She’s So High
Randwick Race 4, No. 1 Suncraze
Randwick Race 5, No. 14 Wheal Leisure – PLACE
Randwick Race 6, No. 13 Oohood
Randwick Race 8, QUINELLA: No.1 Redzel, No.3 Brave Smash, No.8 In Her Time
Randwick Race 9, No.9 Kementari, No.3 Happy Clapper

Ascot

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 3, No. 1 Jingtang – 4 stars
Race 6, No. 1 Abdicator – BEST BET – 4.5 stars

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 2 #2 Western Temple

Bendigo

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 6, No. 2 French Emotion – 4 stars
Race 7, No. 11 Wyndspelle – 3.5 stars

Quaddie: 2, 4, 13 / 1, 2, 6, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 5, 10, 11 / 5, 6, 10, 13

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 7:
LAY (WIN) – Kiwia for 4 units
BACK (WIN) – Seaburge for 0.5 units
BACK (WIN) – Rising Red for 0.5 units

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #5 Brimham Rocks
Race 6 #2 French Emotion

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #16 Sword Of Light; #19 Tradesman

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #5 Holbien

Morphettville

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #5 Coppergate

Betfair – Feature Race Reports:

Race 7:
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #5 Karlovasi

Race 8:
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #6 Glam Guru; #7 Mo Femme

Randwick

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 2, No. 1 Holy Snow – BEST BET – 4.5 stars
Race 3, No. 6 She’s So High – 4.5 stars
Race 4, No. 1 Suncraze – 4 stars
Race 5, No. 14 Wheal Leisure – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars
Race 10, No. 1 Luvaluva – 4 stars

Race 6 – Inglis Sires
Best: Not A Single Cent to WIN ($11.00)
Value: Seberate EACH WAY ($19/$5.00)
Exotic: Box Trifecta 3, 6, 7, 13 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 7 – Australian Derby
Best: Mongolianconqueror to WIN ($12.00)
Value: Astoria EACH WAY ($19/$5.50)
Exotic: Trifecta 1, 4, 7, 8 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 8 – TJ Smith Stakes
Best: In Her Time to WIN ($4.20)
Value: English EACH WAY ($11/$3)
Exotic: Trifecta 1, 6, 8, 9 ($20 for 83.33%)

Race 9 – Doncaster Mile
Best: Happy Clapper to WIN ($5.00)
Value: Cool Chap EACH WAY ($61/$13)
Exotic: Trifecta 3, 9, 11, 13, 15 ($20 for 33.33%)

Quaddie: 1, 4, 7, 8 / 1, 6, 8, 9 / 3, 9, 11, 13, 15 / 1, 4

Unibet – Shaun Beirne:

Race 6:
Back Oohood (3.50) and Encryption (15.00) to win.
If spending 10 units have 8 units on Oohood and 2 units on Encryption.

Race 7:
Back Astoria (19.00, 5.50) each-way.

Race 8:
My Tips
1. Brave Smash
2. Redzel
3. In Her Time
4. Trapeze Artist
Suggested Bet:
Back Brave Smash (7.00) to win.

Race 9:
In this order I would be working with these numbers in the exotics 9, 1, 16, 3, 8, 2.
For a small win bet I would back Kementari (3.70).

Betfair – Lay Nominations:

Surveyed on course bookmakers recommend you lay (bet against) the following runners:

Race 1 #8 Enbihaar
Race 8 #1 Redzel

Unibet – From the Trader’s Desk:

Race 4, No.6, MY TAGOSON – VALUE BET
Race 8, No.8, IN HER TIME – BEST BET
Race 9, No.9, KEMENTARI
Race 10, No.1, LUVALUVA – LAY BET

Neds – Suggested Runners:

Runners are listed in number order, not order of preference.

Race 1: 1 Legend of Condor, 2 Stunts, 4 Lean Mean Machine, 8 Enbihaar
Race 2: 1 Holy Snow, 2 Villermont, 4 Beau Geste, 8 Sondelon
Race 3: 4 Houtzen, 6 She’s So High, 8 Demerara, 15 Dinnigan
Race 4: 1 Suncraze, 2 Caerless Choice, 3 Don’t Give A Damn, 5 Victorem
Race 5: 3 Tally, 8 Alward, 14 Wheal Leisure, 17 Domed
Race 6: 4 Spin, 5 Bondi, 13 Oohood, 14 Seabrook
Race 7: 1 Ace High, 8 Furore, 10 Weather With You, 14 Belfast
Race 8: 1 Redzel, 3 Brave Smash, 8 In Her Time, 12 Trazpeze Artist
Race 9: 2 Tosen Stardom, 3 Happy Clapper, 9 Kementari, 16 D’Argento
Race 10: 1 Luvaluva, 3 Wedgie, 4 Harmattan, 6 Aonair

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 1:
Here we go with Doncaster/Derby day and (whisper it quietly) we are set to enjoy dry conditions! Despite some chance of a very minor shower on Wednesday the rest of the week is looking all clear and sunny and fine. 27 degrees is a perfect forecast for Saturday. That ensures a Good rated track for the Doncaster, for the first time since Racing To Win saluted on a Monday afternoon in 2006. (Indeed, six of the last seven Doncaster days have begun on Heavy.) Rail true, expect all fair or at least fair enough. ENBIHAAR has freshened up since the Blue Diamond but her formlines are strong and she has trialled respectably enough up here to give her the nod in the first.
Selections 8 Enbihaar, 1 Legend of Condor, 4 Lean Machine, 7 Vendome

Race 2:
8 to lead. Either 7 or 10 can cross to his outside (probably 10 as 7 is unreliable at the getaway). 6 and 2 set up next in line. HOLY SNOW split the Vinery quinella at Rosehill last start and is in the midst of a very good prep. Should set up beautifully here too, with Shinn now having the benefit of that latest ride on him. VILLERMONT battled reasonably at Rosehill but perhaps 2000m is a bridge too fa for him at this stage. He comes into calculations here via his Australian Guineas run (where he beat HOLY SNOW home). ASSIMILATE will keep things simple and try to run on from the back. SAMBRO not much of a winner but placed in the Flemington equivalent.
Selections 1 Holy Snow, 2 Villermont, 3 Assimilate, 6 Sambro

Race 3:
15 might want the front more than any other. 4, 5 and 17 press up as well. SHE’S SO HIGH was set up well in the run when returning but I was impressed with the way she finished off. Her wins to date have been fresh but she could rise to this occasion, settling midfield (or a touch ahead). CATCHY drops out of G1 racing for the first time in quite a while. Bounced back with a good effort at MV and ratings say 59 kilos is more than fair enough. HOUTZEN has had a month since her return. She has won both 2nd-up runs to date (albeit at $1.35 both times). Show Less
Selections 6 She’s So High, 1 Catchy, 4 Houtzen, 8 Demerara

Race 4:
A great series has set us up for this fascinating final. 3, 7, 11, 13 and 14 all set up in forward positions. (Add 21 if he makes the field, which is unlikely.) SUNCRAZE is a marvel. He looked nothing like a winner at Scone until right where it mattered. After many 2nds early in his career he has turned into a horse that knows how to win but it’s usually by a narrow margin and he really takes plenty of coaxing. Sets up well here and Brown will use all his strength. CAERLESS CHOICE was off a longer break at Scone and meets SUNCRAZE 1.5 kilos better off so must be a factor.
Selections 1 Suncraze, 2 Caerless Choice, 3 Don’t Give a Damn, 5 Victorem

Race 5:
An even staying contest this one. ALWARD was outgunned by MASTER OF ARTS a fortnight ago but MASTER may have preferred the conditions that day and probably had a fitness edge as well. ALWARD has first attempt beyond 2400m and has this curious record to date where all wins have been over 2000m. He’s as ready as he’ll ever be to step beyond that record though. It’s been a long time drinks for ORMITO (and in fact he hasn’t even taken a drink in 13 runs out here) but he has slowly and steadily worked his way into a respectable galloper at this level. CISMONATANE has been only plain in two runs back but could ‘switch on’ any time.
Selections 8 Alward, 13 Ormito, 7 Cismontane, 2 Master of Arts

Race 6:
6 and 7 to make the play but I am speculating that SEABROOK could be closer perhaps, she hasn’t yet jumped clean from an inside barrier. Gun run for ADANA but a sharp step from Maiden grade to G1. OOHOOD and SEABROOK come through the Slipper, usually pretty good form for this, and they look the obvious pair. Nothing we’ve seen from either would indicate 1400m is going to present any problems, nor should it for LONG LEAF who is from the same event. SEBERATE (winkers off) was gallant at Flemington I thought and could potentially see a cosy time on-pace. OOHOOD the best maiden in Australia? Yes, but maybe not after this.
Selections 13 Oohood, 14 Seabrook, 6 Seberate, 2 Long Leaf

Race 7:
10 and 17 to lead with 1 and 2 drawn to camp handy. 6, 7 and 8 should also find nice enough trails somewhere in the front half. Looking mostly (and obviously) to the Rosehill Guineas as the key lead-up and thought VIN DE DANCE could be given another chance. He was demoted after laying out in the straight and interfering with FURORE but I fancy stepping back out to the Derby trip is much in his favour. This is all first prep for FURORE so it’s a credit to what sort of stayer he promises to be. ACE HIGH laboured a little late in that race but soft conditions don’t seem to help him. He’ll much prefer the dry today.
Selections 2 Vin De Dance, 8 Furore, 4 Mongolianconqueror, 1 Ace High

Race 8:
The TJ without Chautauqua – doesn’t seem right does it but here we go. I reckon REDZEL will want the front today. Last start he had the speedster Super Too go out very hard and taking the trail was the sensible approach. Now to 1200m and he can control proceedings. A trial since the Challenge was all we wanted to see. He has established himself as the best sprinter in the country, winning 7 of his latest 8 with the only defeat coming at the hands of Flemington freak Redkirk Warrior. BRAVE SMASH knows all about Redkirk as well. A late decision to go here (it seemed) but he is a worthy entrant. IN HER TIME unbeaten this track and trip.
Selections 1 Redzel, 3 Brave Smash, 8 In Her Time, 10 Global Glamour

Race 9:
They can hype the Everest until the cows come home, here’s Sydney’s best race. 13 to lead 7. HAPPY CLAPPER draws the paint and could find himself nice and handy, albeit perhaps needing a ‘clean out’ when approaching the business end. Winx is the indisputable benchmark of Australian racing so finishing within a length of her in your final lead-up is indisputably the right form to bring here. His record at the Randwick mile is unmatched in this race. Of course KEMENTARI meets him significantly better (4.5kg!) at the weights (and he might even have his back in the run) but I prefer HAPPY 3rd-up. Runner-up the last two years, this would be his ultimate reward.
Selections 3 Happy Clapper, 9 Kementari, 1 Humidor, 10 Comin’ Through

Race 10:
5 could lead 12, 11 and 3. LUVALUVA need not get too far back from her draw and is on the up in her prep with a bit of quality. If you thought her a chance last week in the Vinery (and we all did I think) then she can give these a touch-up, even giving them all 7 kilos. WEDGIE wasn’t far off her at Kembla and gets a 4 kilo swing for only three quarters of a length. HARMATTAN switches up from Victoria very much looking for this distance and will have plenty of fans. If she’s to be a strong winning chance then we should expect something from both PRETTY TO SEA and JUNGLE FISH as well.
Selections 1 Luvaluva, 3 Wedgie, 4 Harmattan, 11 Pretty To Sea

Ladbrokes – Race Comments:

Race 1:
ENBIHAAR Won a Blue Diamond Prelude before beating all bar Written Tycoon in the Blue Diamond after launching from barrier 16. Hasn’t races since but has been kept up to the mark with a Randwick trial placing and is the one to beat. LEGEND OF CONDOR Was an impressive winner of the Victory Vein Plate on debut at Randwick last October but hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations in three runs this campaign although solid at the same time. This is his chance to return to the winner’s list back to 1100m. STUNTS Finished in the placings at his first two career starts including a third behind Legend Of Condor in the Victory Vein Plate on debut. Had plenty on a maiden field at Wyong last start and no surprise to see him go on with the job after a confidence boosting win. LEAN MEAN MACHINE Overcame a wide run in transit to win a Warwick Farm maiden on debut and although faces a significant rise in grade has plenty of scope for improvement..

Race 2:
HOLY SNOW Won the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield resuming three back and was terrific last start when nailed on the line by Unforgotten in the Phar Lap Stakes with Hiyaam third. That form held-up through the Vinery last week and rates as the one to beat. VILLERMONT Won the Sandown Guineas in the Spring but hasn’t really fired in three runs this preparation. Has had a change of trainers and is capable of improving sharply. SONDELON Looks the leader and although this is significantly than his three runs to date does look to have plenty of upside for the Waterhouse and Bott stable and goes in all the exotics. BEAU GESTE Was a touch disappointing at Rosehill last start after a promising return when a close third at Warwick Farm two back. Arguably looking for the mile now and has to be given another chance.

Race 3:
SHE’S SO HIGH Is chasing back to back wins after an easy victory in the Moomba Plate up the straight at Flemington last start. Damien Oliver retains the ride and there is nothing to suggest that form won’t hold up here. HOUTZEN Is the winner of five of his ten starts including the 2017 Magic Millions and the Group III Scraborough Stakes last preparation. Was a beaten favourite in the Fireball resuming but it is worth noting she is unbeaten second-up and rates as one of the key chances. DINNIGAN Broke through for a maiden win at Gosford last start and looks the type that could go on with the job after a confidence boosting win. DEMERARA Has worked through the grades in fine style winning five of her seven starts to date including both runs this preparation at Moonee Valley and Flemington. This is a rise in grade but gee it is hard to knock the winning form.

Race 4:
DON’T GIVE A DAMN Connections were thankful for the second chance in the Wild Card at Muswellbrook last Sunday after turning in the worst run of his career when down the track in the Goulburn Qualifier. The trainer said he was only 60 percent right last week and even if Danny Williams was only half right that would make him something to beat here. SUNCRAZE Hasn’t finished worse than second in his 12-starts to date and loved the will to win he displayed over the latter stages to get the money in the Scone Qualifier. Is the best weighted-horse under the set-weight conditions and that has been a significant factor since the inaugural running of this series. VICTOREM Has won four of his five starts and was an impressive winner of the Port Macquarie Qualifier last start. Hasn’t raced for 48-days but produces his best fresh and has won a Port Macquarie trial in the interim and is right in the mix. CAERLESS CHOICE Was nailed on the line in the Scone Qualifier by Suncraze and has to be given some chance of reversing the result having his second run back from a 71-day let-up.

Race 5:
ALWARD Has been terrific all three runs this preparation finishing in the placings on each occasion and having no luck at Rosehill and Randwick before a close second in the Manion Cup last week on a soft track. This is his chance to return to the winner’s list back on good ground. WHEAL LEISURE Worked home solidly when placed in the Albury Cup last start. Was placed in the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington this trip in the Spring and is right in the mix again peaking fourth-up. TALLY Was well beaten in the Neville Selwood at Rosehill last start but stays under notice on his effort in the Randwick City Stakes two runs back when less than two-lengths from the winner. Rates a place chance with the blinkers back on. DOMED Winner at Canterbury and placed in all other outings this preparation. Faces a rise in distance. Goes down in weight. Genuine contender.

Race 6:
OOHOOD Still a maiden but brings the best form lines to the race finishing in the placings in the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper at last two. Has been crying out for 1400m and this looks her chance to break through. SPIN Has been placed four of last five including a third in the Baillieu at Rosehill last start when the rider dropped the whip at the 300m. Love the fact the blinkers go back on and he is a genuine winning chance. SEABROOK Was an impressive winner of the Sweet Embrace before hitting the line solidly when just over two-lengths from the winner in the slipper. Drawn to get the sucker run from the inside gate and she’s a genuine winning chance. BONDI After finishing third in the Black Opal went to Newcastle for a confidence boosting maiden win. No surprise to see him go on with the job.

Race 7:
FURORE Arguably should have tested the winner in the Rosehill Guineas last start when a successful protest saw him elevated to third. Proved he was up to this grade last start and looks a great chance to make amends. ACE HIGH Won three on the trot last preparation culminating in a Victoria Derby win. Has been solid in each of his four runs this time including covering plenty of ground in the Guineas last start. He’s ready to win from an ideal gate. BELFAST Was arguably the run of the race when just over two-lengths form the winner in the Tulloch last Saturday. Likely to get back again after wide draw but does look suited getting to 2400m and will be getting home hard. WEATHER WITH YOU Battled on strongly after racing on the speed when a close third in the Tulloch Stakes last week. Gets all the favours in running from the inside gate and he’s a value chance for the wider exotics.

Race 8:
REDZEL A run of six straight wins was interrupted when he was run down late in the Lightning at Flemington however bounced back next start with a dominant win in the Challenge Stakes. 28-days between runs but was an impressive Randwick trial winner in the interim and is the one to beat. BRAVE SMASH Was placed in the Everest last preparation and the Futurity winner at Caulfield two back. Charged home to just miss in the Newmarket last start and nothing to suggest he won’t be in the finish again. TRAPEZE ARTIST Won the Golden Rose in the Spring and returned a winner in the Expressway three runs back. Was placed in the Randwick Guineas over a mile last start and back to 1200m looks a significant red flag here. IN HER TIME Broke through for a deserved Group I victory I the Shorts at Rosehill last start. Is unbeaten in three runs over the Randwick 1200m and she’s right in play.

Race 9:
KEMENTARI Has looked a genuine top-liner this preparation and the superior three-year-old winning the Randwick Guineas two back. Far from disgraced finishing third in the George Ryder last start taking on the older horses at WFA and he’s right in this dropping to 51.5kg back to a handicap. HAPPY CLAPPER Won the Epsom in the Spring with 57kg and looks well-weighted for mine with the same weight here. He has returned in great order winning the Canterbury Stakes first-up before making Winx work all the way in the George Ryder last start. He’s the one to beat. D’ARGENTO Has won four of his six starts to date and comes back to the mile after winning the Rosehill Guineas last start. Has to be a major player with only 49kg to carry. TOSEN STARDOM Was disappointing when a beaten favourite in the Blamey at Flemington last start after finishing runner-up in the Futurity. The Toorak winner in the Spring and can bounce back.

Race 10:
LUVALUVA Won the Wakeful this trip in the Spring and could not have been more impressive winning the Kembla Grange Classic last start over the mile. The one to beat getting up to 2000m for the first time this preparation. HARMATTAN Won her first two career starts at Sale and Pakenham in the Godolphin blue before showing she is up to this level finishing a close second in the Alexandra Stakes at Moonee Valley last start. Still has upside and is a genuine winning chance. AONAIR Showed some improvement second-up in the Kembla Grange Classic and is a knockout hope stepping up to 2000m third-up. WEDGIE Won successive races at Kembla and Hawkesbury before finishing less than a length from Luvaluva in the Kembla Grange Classic last start. Hard to see that result being reversed up to the 2000m but can get into the placings.

Toowoomba

William Hill – The Wolf:

Race 4, No. 10 Givus A Cuddle – 4 stars
Race 6, No. 1 Zofonic Dancer – 3 stars
Race 7, No. 3 Get On The Grange – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars

Betfair – Racing Preview:

Race 8:
LAY (WIN) Mr Marbellouz on BSP (enter – Your liability =3% of betting bank)

 

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