English Premier League Round 35 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 35 of the 2017/18 English Premier League. Gameweek 35 features just 6 fixtures, but I’ve also included the two remaining Friday (AEST) fixtures from Gameweek 34: Burnley vs. Chelsea and Leicester City vs. Southampton.

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Burnley vs. Chelsea

 

Back Burnley +1.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.31 (Betfair)

Burnley are on a 5-game winning streak and have only lost 1 of their last 9 EPL fixtures. Of the 7 games they’ve lost at home over the last 12 months, 5 were by just one goal. Of the big six clubs to visit Turf Moor this season, only Tottenham won by more than a goal. Chelsea enter this fixture in indifferent form. They’re now 8 points adrift of Tottenham in the race for 4th while at the same time there’s little risk they’ll miss out on a Europa Cup spot, with Arsenal 6 points behind and Burnley another 2 points back. Chelsea have won 2 of their last 6 and had to play their get out of jail card to overcome the struggling Southampton 3-2 in their last fixture.

Leicester City vs. Southampton

 

Back Leicester City to score over 1.5 goals at 2.25 (William Hill)
Back Leicester City to score over 2.5 goals at 5.20 (Unibet)

Southampton can’t stop conceding goals at the moment. They’ve conceded 3 times in each of their last 4 fixtures and 8 of their last 12 opponents (including the likes of West Brom) have put 2 or more goals past them. Away from home it gets even worse, with 5 of their last 6 opponents scoring at least twice. Of Leicester City’s 7 home wins over the last 12 months, 5 were by 2+ goals. The last time the two sides met Leicester City won 4-1.

Back Leicester City to score over 0.5 goals at 1.25 (Mad Bookie)

Leicester have only been held scoreless at home in 2 out of 19 games over the last year, while Southampton have only kept 4 clean sheets in 19 away games.

West Brom vs. Liverpool

 

Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.54 (Unibet)

West Brom have picked up in form since Darren Moore’s appointment as caretaker manager, but I fear it’s too late for their survival chances. Their shock away win over Man Utd, who didn’t look like scoring in a month of Sundays in their listless performance, has created a bit of value on Liverpool here. Liverpool opened as low as 1.28 with some bookmakers but are now available at 1.50+ odds. Liverpool boast a 11-3-2 away record over the last 12 months. They’re actually more reliable to back away from home than at Anfield, because the weaker clubs tend to have a go rather than shut up shop. For West Brom to survive they need wins, not draws, so they will push for goals and I can see Liverpool hitting them on the counter.

Watford vs. Crystal Palace

 

Back Crystal Palace +0.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.50 (Betfair)

Watford are most likely safe from relegation, which is just as well given they’ve gone cold, going 0-1-4 in their last 5 fixtures. With Wilfried Zaha fit, Crystal Palace have found some form again and find themselves in the rare position of the away favourite. Goals are coming freely for Palace at the moment. They’ve scored at least twice in 4 of their last 6 fixtures and at least once in 11 of their last 12. The last two times Palace were the away favourite the match ended in a draw, which is why I’ve opted for them in the Asian handicap rather than the head-to-head.

Arsenal vs. West Ham

 

Back Arsenal in the head-to-head at 1.55 (Unibet)

Arsenal opened as low as 1.30 but their away defeat at Newcastle has seen them them blow out to 1.55, which has created some value. Arsenal have a 17-0-1 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months and have won 5 of their last 6 home fixtures against West Ham. They’ve won 10 of 13 against West Ham, both home and away, so it’s fair to say they’ve had the better of their London rival. West Ham are in mediocre form, which has seen them slide towards the relegation fight. They’ve only won 1 of their last 6, with little suggesting they can reverse their poor record against Arsenal.

Stoke City vs. Burnley

 

Back Burnley +0.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.64 (bet365)

Stoke City are on a 10-game winless streak and have lost 4 of their last 5. Burnley have won their last 3 away fixtures against sides in the bottom half of the table. At the time of writing they haven’t played their Friday fixture against Chelsea yet, but prior to that fixture they had only lost 1 of their previous 9 fixtures.

Back Burnley +1.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.18 (bet365)

Over the last 12 months, Burnley have lost only 1 of their 19 away fixtures by more than 1 goal.

Man City vs. Swansea

 

Back Man City in the head-to-head at 1.17 (Betfair)

Swansea need the points while Man City don’t, but the home side should win regardless. They’ve won their last six at home against Swansea and have won 6 of their last 7 games. Swansea have lost their last 5 away fixtures against top 7 teams and only managed 1 goal in their last 6 away fixtures against the top 7. Man City have won each of their last 5 home fixtures against clubs outside the top 7 by 2+ goals.

Back Man City to win 2-1 at 15.00 (bet365)

The last 3 EPL meetings between the two sides at this venue were settled by the 2-1 scoreline.

Everton vs. Newcastle

 

Back Everton in the head-to-head at 2.30 (Unibet)

Everton have a 10-1-1 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months and a 4-1-1 record in their last six meetings against Newcastle at Goodison Park.

 

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