The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup round of 16 fixture between Brazil and Mexico. The game kicks off on the 3rd of July at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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Brazil
- FIFA World Rank: 2
- Elo Rating: 1
- Qualifying: First place in the CONMEBOL qualifiers with a 12-5-1 record.
Squad:
- Coach: Adenor Leonardo Bacchi (Tite)
- Goalkeepers: Alisson (Roma), Ederson (Manchester City), Cassio (Corinthians)
- Defenders: Miranda (Inter Milan), Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), Thiago Silva (Paris Saint-Germain), Geromel (Gremio), Marcelo (Real Madrid), Fagner (Corinthians), Danilo (Manchester City), Filipe Luis (Atletico Madrid)
- Midfielders: Casemiro (Real Madrid), Fernandinho (Manchester City), Paulinho (Barcelona), Renato Augusto (Beijing Guoan), Philippe Coutinho (Barcelona), Willian (Chelsea), Fred (Shakhtar Donetsk)
- Forwards: Neymar (Paris Saint-Germain), Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City), Firmino (Liverpool), Taison (Shakhtar Donetsk), Douglas Costa (Juventus)
Recent results:
- Serbia 0 – 2 Brazil
27/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Brazil 2 – 0 Costa Rica
22/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Brazil 1 – 1 Switzerland
17/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Austria 0 – 3 Brazil
10/06/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - Croatia 0 – 2 Brazil
03/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - Germany 0 – 1 Brazil
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Germany - Russia 0 – 3 Brazil
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Russia - England 0 – 0 Brazil
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in England - Japan 1 – 3 Brazil
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in France - Brazil 3 – 0 Chile
10/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Brazil - Bolivia 0 – 0 Brazil
05/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Bolivia - Colombia 1 – 1 Brazil
05/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Colombia
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 34-9-6
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 46-3
- O/U 1.5 record: 38-11
- O/U 2.5 record: 25-24
- O/U 3.5 record: 12-37
- O/U 4.5 record: 4-45
- O/U 5.5 record: 2-47
- Wins
- Total wins: 34
- Won by 1 goal: 10
- Won by 2 goals: 11
- Won by 3 goals: 8
- Won by 4 goals: 3
- Won by 5 goals: 1
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 24
- Losses
- Total losses: 6
- Lost by 1 goal: 3
- Lost by 2 goals: 1
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 1
- Lost to nil 5
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 49
- Clean Sheets: 27
- Held Scoreless: 8
- Both Teams Scored: 17
Mexico
- FIFA World Rank: 15
- Elo Rating: 18
- Qualifying: Won the CONCACAF Fifth Round with a 6-3-1 record.
Squad:
- Coach: Juan Carlos Osorio (Colombia)
- Goalkeepers: Guillermo Ochoa (Standard Liege), Alfredo Talavera (Toluca), Jesus Corona (Cruz Azul)
- Defenders: Diego Reyes (Porto), Carlos Salcedo (Eintracht Frankfurt), Hector Moreno (Real Sociedad), Miguel Layun (Sevilla), Jesus Gallardo (Pumas), Hugo Ayala (Tigres UANL), Edson Alvarez (Club America)
- Midfielders: Hector Herrera (Porto), Andres Guardado (Real Betis), Rafa Marquez (Atlas), Jonathan dos Santos (LA Galaxy), Marco Fabian (Eintracht Frankfurt), Giovani dos Santos (LA Galaxy)
- Forwards: Javier Aquino (Tigres UANL), Jesus Corona (Porto), Raul Jimenez (Benfica), Oribe Peralta (Club America), Javier Hernandez (West Ham United), Carlos Vela (LAFC), Hirving Lozano (PSV Eindhoven)
Recent results:
- Mexico 0 – 3 Sweden
27/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - South Korea 1 – 2 Mexico
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Germany 0 – 1 Mexico
17/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Denmark 2 – 0 Mexico
09/06/2018
Friendly, played in Denmark - Mexico 1 – 0 Scotland
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Mexico - Mexico 0 – 0 Wales
28/05/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 0 – 1 Croatia
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 3 – 0 Iceland
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 1 – 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
31/01/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Poland 0 – 1 Mexico
13/11/2017
Friendly, played in Poland - Belgium 3 – 3 Mexico
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in Belgium - Honduras 3 – 2 Mexico
10/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Honduras
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 37-17-13
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 59-8
- O/U 1.5 record: 44-23
- O/U 2.5 record: 33-34
- O/U 3.5 record: 19-48
- O/U 4.5 record: 10-57
- O/U 5.5 record: 5-62
- Wins
- Total wins: 37
- Won by 1 goal: 21
- Won by 2 goals: 11
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 0
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 23
- Losses
- Total losses: 13
- Lost by 1 goal: 7
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 2
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 1
- Lost to nil 7
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 67
- Clean Sheets: 31
- Held Scoreless: 15
- Both Teams Scored: 29
Commentary
Brazil reached the Round of 16 as the winners of Group E. They commenced their campaign with a laboured 1-1 draw with Switzerland. Apart from Philippe Coutinho’s stunning strike to take the lead, the performance didn’t live up to the high expectations surrounding the side, with Neymar in particular having an underwhelming game and their defence looking suspect. Brazil then beat Costa Rica 2-0, with both goals coming in second half stoppage time. Brazil were pedestrian in the first half and only really started to push for goals with urgency in the second spell. Brazil then put in their best performance by defeating Serbia 2-0, with the side showing glimpses of the high quality football they are capable of. Despite the criticism of their form, Brazil remain unbeaten in 14 games, with a 10-4-0 record and just 3 goals conceded. Looking back further, they have lost just one match in their last 22 fixtures, scoring 49 goals while conceding just 5. Despite all the hype surrounding around Neymar, Philippe Coutinho has been Brazil’s best player this tournament. He has provided four goals and two assists in seven matches for Brazil in 2018. In team news, Marcelo is in doubt after suffering a back spasm against Serbia. Douglas Costa is again in doubt after missing the Serbia match, while Danilo is available to return.
Mexico finished as the runners up of Group F after South Korea shocked Germany 2-0 in matchday 3. The Mexican players looked a bit sheepish when they found out they were through, given they had just conceded three second half goals to lose 3-0 to Sweden. Mexico got their campaign off to a dream start with a deserved 1-0 win over Germany. The only criticism is that they should have scored more. Mexico then defeated South Korea 2-1. They always looked in control of that match with South Korea’s only goal coming deep into stoppage time. Mexican fans won’t need reminding that while they have now reached the Round of 16 for the 8th consecutive time, they failed to progress beyond this point in their previous seven attempts. Their underwhelming performance against Sweden is a concern going into this clash, although the side will feel they have a new lease of life after South Korea’s win gifted them passage to the Round of 16. They will be hoping for more productivity from striker Javier Hernandez. He has 49 goals in 104 appearances for Mexico, but has yet to score this tournament. Hirving Lozano has been Mexico’s best player this World Cup and will be a key weapon against Brazil. In team news, centre-back Hector Moreno is suspended for one match for accumulating two yellow cards.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Brazil vs. Mexico
Brazil and Mexico have met 40 previous times, with Brazil holding a 23-7-10 record and a 4-1-1 record in their last six meetings. In their four previous World Cup meetings Mexico failed to score as they lost three times and drew once. The last World Cup meeting between the two was in 2014, which resulted 0-0. The most recent head-to-head was a Sao Paulo friendly in 2015, which Brazil won 2-0. Both teams scored in only 2 of their previous 13 head-to-heads. Ten of those 13 games went under 2.5 goals.
History is on the side of Brazil here. They have never lost a World Cup game against opponents from central or north America. Their last six defeats in this tournament were to European sides. The last time Brazil failed to reach the quarter-finals of a World Cup was back in 1990, while Mexico have failed in their previous seven attempts to advance past the Round of 16. In their last six Round of 16 fixtures, Brazil out-scored their opponents 14 goals to 2. While Brazil’s performances this year have been questioned, their results have been strong, with the side keeping clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 games. Brazil’s last six wins have been to nil, while Mexico’s last three defeats have been to nil.
Betting tip: back Brazil to win at 1.50 (bet365). Those who are more conservative can place a small hedge bet on the 0-0 draw at 12.50 (Unibet). For those looking for more risk, back Brazil to win to nil at 2.52 (Betfair). Three of the last four meetings between the two resulted in 2-0 scorelines, so if I were to pick a correct score it would be 2-0 at 7.80 (Betfair). Brazil’s last two wins have been by this scoreline and over the last 4 years they have won by 2 goals more frequently than any other margin.
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more