The following are previews with betting tips for Round 12 of the 2019 AFL season.
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Friday, June 7
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Richmond vs Geelong7:50pm AEST, MCG |
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The first bye weekend of 2019 presents us with some challenging games to predict, starting with this massive Friday night clash between the Tigers and the Cats. Geelong are still the clear standout team at this stage but their form hasn’t been quite as dominant over the past fortnight, while the Tigers continue to fluctuate between excellent and terrible; their Friday night loss to the Kangaroos obviously falling into the latter category. They’ll be setting themselves to have a huge crack at the Cats this week, and it should be a ripping contest.
Richmond skipper Trent Cotchin will only get better after his comeback game against the Roos, while Dustin Martin is looking very dangerous again, despite having his opportunities limited by the Roos in the second half. I reckon the Tigers match up well against Geelong and could cause them some issues with their unique forward line consisting of Tom Lynch surrounded by crumbers. The issue for the Tigers will be containing Tom Hawkins and the other tall options the Cats rotate forward, especially with David Astbury back on the sidelines; if they can do that they’ll be well and truly in the game. I’m not confident enough to back the Tigers, but I do think they’ll give the Cats a genuine challenge and it should be an extremely tight contest right up until the final siren.
Betting tip: Geelong By 1-24 @ $3.25 (TopBetta)
Saturday, June 8
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Carlton vs Brisbane1:45pm AEST, Marvel Stadium |
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It’s been a big week for Carlton: they were smashed by the Bombers on Sunday in a game they would’ve thought was winnable, and in regrouping from that loss and the disappointment of the season-to-date, they decided to sack coach Brendan Bolton. It was potentially the right decision, but life hasn’t been made easy for Bolton, and the next senior coach of Carlton is still going to have his work cut out despite possessing a list with some potential future superstars. The issue for the Blues is that those potential stars are surrounded by list-cloggers and gap-fillers, and those guys aren’t playing their roles to the standard the Blues would have hoped for. I’m not sure whether a change of coach will make much difference to that, but we’ll find out shortly.
Caretaker coach David Teague’s first assignment will be against the up-and-coming Lions, and while Brisbane have been good in 2019, there are probably still some questions marks over them when playing away from the Gabba. That’ll give the Blues some hope of grabbing their second win of 2019, but in reality they’re probably a better chance against the Dogs after having a chance to properly regroup during their bye week. I think there’ll be enough effort and determination to avoid a thumping, but I reckon the Lions will get the win by a fairly comfortable five or six goals.
Betting tip: Brisbane (-15.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
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Gold Coast vs North Melbourne4:35pm AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Kangaroos have had a very good two weeks since the decision to part ways with coach Brad Scott, winning games against the Dogs and the Tigers with ease. It’s opened up some hopeful discussion on playing finals footy, and while they’re still two wins out of the eight, if they keep up their recent form they’ll win plenty of games during the rest of the season. You’d expect them to extend their winning streak to three when they face the battling Suns this weekend; Gold Coast are in a real slump, having struggled for a number of weeks now and copping a flogging at the hands of GWS on the weekend. They’ll be desperately looking forward to the bye, but they need to endure two more weeks before they get the rest.
The good news is that both games are, if not winnable, at least on the lower end of the difficulty spectrum; they’ve got the Roos at home, followed by the Saints in Townsville. To win one of those would give them some much needed relief heading into the week off, but I’m not sure they’re capable at the moment. If North play anything like they have over the past fortnight, the Suns won’t be able to keep up with them, and I expect that’s how this one will pan out.
Betting tip: North Melbourne to win @ $1.43 (BetEasy)
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Adelaide vs GWS Giants7:40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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The Crows hosting the Giants on Saturday evening is another tough one to pick; the Giants are probably playing the better footy, but the Crows have the significant Adelaide Oval advantage. They got out of jail in Darwin, kicking eight of the last nine goals to take the lead from Melbourne before being forced to watch helplessly as young Demon Sam Weideman had a simple set shot to win the game for his team. He missed, and the Crows celebrated a bizarre win. It came at a cost however, with co-captain Rory Sloane injuring a hamstring; there may also be some extra fatigue after playing in the humid NT conditions. The Crows have yet again dropped Bryce Gibbs along with Hugh Greenwood, though there’s every chance one of those two will be a late-in if Sloane doesn’t come up.
The Giants will have no such fatigue after destroying the Suns at home. They’re starting to build some form as well as gaining some continuity from their best players, though the Lachie Whitfield injury is a big blow. Form and continuity is an important combination, and while they’ve got that they’re going to be difficult to beat. I’m expecting this one to be an interesting game of footy and while it should be tight for the most part, I feel like the Giants might just blow it apart in the final stages; I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a seven goal final margin while feeling like it was a close game.
Betting tip: GWS to win @ $1.77 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday, June 9
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Sydney vs West Coast3:20pm AEST, SCG |
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The Swans have had a tough three weeks in terms of opponents: Collingwood, Geelong, and West Coast. They’ve lost the first two; they played well against the Pies, and weren’t too bad against the Cats either. So how will they go against the reigning premiers at home? It’s likely to be similar to the first two: a close, admirable loss. There’s no doubt they’re playing better footy, but there’s still a significant gap between them and the best teams in the competition. The Eagles sit comfortably alongside the Pies and the Cats and should make life difficult for the Swans on Sunday, despite having a poor record at the SCG and having to do it without skipper Shannon Hurn. That shouldn’t concern them too much, at least not this week. They’ve got the defenders to go with Buddy, and a forward line the Swans won’t be able to contain. As long as they win their share of the ball out of the middle, the Eagles should have absolutely no worries in securing another win to make it six in-a-row heading into the bye weekend. Their premiership defence might’ve been looking shaky earlier on in the year, but it’s now coming along very nicely.
Betting tip:Â West Coast to win @ $1.74 (BetFair)
Monday, June 10
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Collingwood vs Melbourne3:20pm AEST, MCG |
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Round 12 culminates in Monday’s Queen’s Birthday clash between the Demons and the Pies, and while it might not have the same excitement as it did last year, it’s still a huge day on the football calendar and is one of those games where anything can happen.
The Pies are struggling slightly at present; I thought they were due a down week but just wasn’t sure Freo would be good enough to beat them at the MCG. It was close, but the Dockers got them, and this is definitely another danger game. Melbourne are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Adelaide, and with finals currently out of the question, the Demons will be treating this as a mini-grand final. They’ve got some big names to return too, with recent big-name recruits Jake Lever and Steven May both named to play after long injury lay-offs.
The Pies are already missing Taylor Adams and will now be without Dayne Beams for an extended period, so it’s fortunate they’ve got such a deep midfield. Nevertheless, that’s going to put some strain on them and they’ll need to be at their best to continue winning consistently until they regain some troops. While I’m wary of this one being a potential upset, I’m sticking with the Pies to win a close one; they’re clearly the better team and I think the importance of winning this one after dropping last week will be enough to drive them over the line.
Betting tip: Collingwood to win @ $1.45 (BetFair)
Best Bets of the Round
GWS to win @ $1.77 (Ladbrokes)