• General 28.03.2010 No Comments

    After twenty fixtures, below are my results thus far after following Mark Lawrenson’s predictions for the English Premier League. For those who haven’t read my previous post, I have been betting $2 on each fixture that he provides a tip for. I have bet $1 on each result selection (win/draw/loss), and $1 on each predicted score line.

    Head to Head betting

    • Win ratio: 65% (13 / 20)
    • Average bet odds: 2.26
    • Net winnings: $6.44
    • Profit margin: 32%

    Correct Score betting

    • Win ratio: 25% (5 / 20)
    • Average bet odds: 7.40
    • Net winnings: $13.50
    • Profit margin: 68%

    Overall Profit/Loss

    • Total bets: $40.00
    • Net winnings: $19.94
    • Net return: 50%

    So far so good! Lawro has made some fine choices, including the 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Birmingham this weekend. Since I’ve been tracking his progress, he has picked the correct score 25% of the time with average odds of 7.40.

    You can view his tips and my progress in the Australia Sports Betting Forum.

  • General 15.03.2010 1 Comment

    Anyone who frequents the BBC Football website will undoubtedly be familiar with “Lawro’s predictions”, which are Mark Lawrenson’s predictions for each week’s football fixtures. These fixtures are typically for the English Premier League, although he also provides tips for the Carling Cup and FA Cup.

    Lately I’ve noticed that Mark Lawrenson has been tipping very well. Unlike most celebrity tipsters, he predicts the score line, not just the result. Last week Lawro got seven out of ten results correct, with two perfect scores. Given that the shortest odds for a correct score are typically around 5.50, Lawro’s tips look to have made for a profitable weekend.

    With that in mind, I have created a forum thread dedicated to putting Lawro’s weekly tips to the test. I’m going to bet $2 on each fixture that he provides a tip for. I will bet $1 on the result (win/draw/loss), and $1 on Lawro’s predicted score line. Each week I will provide a running account of how well I perform using Lawro’s predictions. Will I make a profit following his advice week in, week out?

    Click here to follow my progress.

  • Version 1.04 of the Betting Tracker spreadsheet is now available for download.

    The new version comes with the following updates:

    • The performance summary sheet now includes betting odds statistics
    • The worksheets are now colour coded. The blue sheets are used to input data and the yellow sheets output statistics and information.
    • Additional instructions have been placed within selected worksheets
    • Additional rows have been added to the Bets worksheet

    Click here to learn more about the Betting Tracker.

  • General 13.03.2010 No Comments

    As a sister site to this blog, I have created a sports betting forum, which can be accessed here:
    http://forum.aussportsbetting.com.

    This forum serves as a place to find support and ask questions regarding my performance tracking spreadsheet. It is also a place to discuss the latest in sports betting.

    The forum categories are currently:

    • Beginners
    • Sports Betting
    • Horse Racing
    • Betting Theory, Tools and Data
    • Bookmakers and Exchanges
    • Miscellaneous
  • General 12.03.2010 No Comments

    Betfair is currently offering vastly superior odds to traditional bookmakers such as Sportsbet in the lead up to the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

    With any sporting event there is typically some discrepancy between Betfair and traditional bookmakers due to the fact that one is a market and the rest have odds set by data analysts. These discrepancies always seem to be the greatest when it comes to tournament winners, and the 2010 World Cup is no exception. To illustrate how disparate the odds are for the World Cup, compare the odds disparities to those for a typical football match. I have purposely selected the first English Premier League fixture listed on Sportsbet.

    Tottenham v Blackburn

    Result Sportsbet    Betfair
    Tottenham    1.44 1.47
    Draw 4.20 4.70
    Blackburn 7.50 8.80

     

    As you can see, for the football fixture the odds do vary, but not substantially. Note that if your Betfair bet wins you subtract a small portion of the displayed odds as a transaction fee.

    Now compare the two sets of odds for the 2010 Fifa World Cup.

    2010 FIFA World Cup Winner

    Team Sportsbet    Betfair
    Spain 5.00 5.2
    Brazil 5.50 6.2
    England 6.50 7
    Argentina 10 12
    Italy 13 15
    France 13 19.5
    Germany 15 15
    Netherlands 16 17
    Portugal 26 32
    Ivory Coast 26 30
    Paraguay 41 100
    Mexico 51 85
    Serbia 51 85
    Chile 51 70
    United States 67 80
    Ghana 76 80
    South Africa 81 130
    Australia 81 150
    Denmark 81 160
    Uruguay 81 150
    Cameroon 101 130
    Nigeria 101 160
    Greece 126 230
    Switzerland 176 340
    Slovenia 176 460
    Japan 201 500
    Slovakia 201 370
    South Korea 251 300
    Korea DPR 251 1000
    Honduras 401 1000
    Algeria 501 500
    New Zealand    751 1000

     

    For a number of teams you get more than twice the odds with Betfair as you would with Sportsbet. The less likely a team is to win, the more disparate the odds. Other than the obvious reason that the odds are better, another reason to use a marketplace such as Betfair for World Cup Winner betting is that you can bet against a team you previously backed if the odds drop. For example, in November I backed South Korea to win the World Cup at odds of 500-1. I can now lay a bet against South Korea at odds of 300-1. If I bet as much against South Korea as I previously did for them I would net 200-1 odds if they win, with no loss if they lose. Alternatively I could bet a little more on South Korea to lose, and lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome.

    I do have my gripes with Betfair, for example the $5 minimum bet, and the complicated payoff system, but on days like this I can’t praise it enough. I’ve said this before when the tennis was on, but Betfair comes into its own for tournament betting.

Join Sportingbet Australia
  • General 01.03.2010 No Comments

    It’s that time of year again. Sportsbet’s million dollar tipping is back, with the 2010 seasons of NRL and AFL due to start this month.

    For those who aren’t familiar with million dollar tipping, it’s a tipping competition with $1,000,000 in cash and prizes. Each week you predict the winner for each fixture and get ranked based on your number of correct tips.

    The NRL season commences on the 12th of March and the AFL season kicks off on the 25th of March. You can join either or both of these competitions, but given the random prizes awarded each week, there’s nothing lost in signing up for both. You can’t place tips just yet, but once you’ve signed up you can elect to have Sportsbet email you with reminders to place your tips.

    I join these competitions each year just for a bit of fun, but for those of you who are interested in the prizes, below are the prize summaries for each sport.

    Placing AFL    NRL
    1st $150,000    $150,000
    2nd $60,000 $60,000
    3rd $40,000 $40,000
    4th $20,000 $20,000
    5th $10,000 $10,000
    6th $5,000 $5,000
    7th $4,000 $4,000
    8th $3,000 $3,000
    9th $2,000 $2,000
    10th $1,000 $1,000
    11th to 50th $200 $200
    51st to 150th $100 $100
    151st to 250th $50 $50
    251st to 500th    $25 $25

     

    Sportsbet also gives away over $1,000 in monthly cash prizes for the best performers over that particular month.

    Placing    AFL    NRL
    1st $300    $300
    2nd $200 $200
    3rd $150 $150
    4th $100 $100
    5th $50 $50

     

    As a new feature this year, there are also separate prizes for supporters of each team. The top 5 tipsters for each team at the end of the Home & Away season will each receive a Best of Club cash prize.

    Placing    AFL    NRL
    1st $1,200    $1,200
    2nd $750 $750
    3rd $500 $500
    4th $250 $250
    5th $100 $100

     

    Sportsbet will also give away $50 weekly cash prizes based on your ranking compared to some pre-arranged numbers. For example in the first week those ranked 1st, 221st, 8,401st, 12,781st and 41,891st will win a prize.

    There is no cost to play Million Dollar Tipping.

    My suggestions

    For those who are new to tipping, below are some of my suggestions.

    • Wait until as late as possible to finalise your tips. Obviously, this provides you with the ability to make the most informed decision with the latest weather and injury news. Also, Sportsbet provides the betting odds for each fixture close to kick off, which enables you to see what the betting agency thinks of each fixture.
    • Err on the side of simplicity when determining your tipping strategy. I’ve often been involved in office tipping competitions where people have over analysed a round and made last minute changes that turned out to be wrong.
    • Keep an eye on celebrity tipsters in newspapers. See who’s performing well and take a look at their tips if you aren’t sure about certain fixtures.
    • If in doubt, pick the home team.

    Best of luck! You can join the tipping competitions by clicking here.

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