Fantasy Premier League

With the 2010/11 English Premier League Football season due to start in August, now is the perfect time to set up your fantasy team. My favourite fantasy site by a country mile is http://fantasy.premierleague.com/. It is the official fantasy game for...

Kelly Criterion – Part 3d – Fractional Kelly Betting

This post continues Part 3 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Part 1 provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion and a worked example. Part 2 provides a simple derivation. This post discusses fractional Kelly...

Kelly Criterion – Part 3c – Incorporating the Possibility of a Refund

This post continues Part 3 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Part 1 provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion and a worked example. Part 2 provides a simple derivation. This post extends the Kelly criterion...

$20,000 Super Bonus Prize Pool this Weekend for the AFL and NRL

Sportsbet has launched a $20,000 Super Bonus Prize pool for 1st Goal/Try Scorer (combined) winners this weekend. To be eligible, place a $5 wager (or more) on the 1st goal or 1st try scorer (combined) market for any AFL/NRL match this weekend. If your...

Briggs’ Fall Makes Bookmakers Suspicious

The sports wagering industry fears that Briggs’ first round loss to Danny Green last night was premeditated. Paul Briggs went down 29 seconds into the first round of his IBO cruiserweight title fight with Danny Green last night in Perth. Centrebet...

Kelly Criterion – Part 3b – Accounting for the Time Value of Money

This post continues Part 3 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Part 1 provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. Part 2 provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion. Part...

Kelly Criterion – Part 3a – Backing and Laying Bets with Betfair

This post is Part 3 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Part 1 provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. Part 2 provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion. Part 3 in...

Betting on the Weather in the Open Championship 2010

Betting on the The Open Championship 2010 is an exercise in predicting the weather at the moment. I took a punt on the weather getting worse in the afternoon on Friday and made a series of bets on the early starters. Louis Oosthuizen came up trumps for...

Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation

This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. This post provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion,...

Kelly Criterion – Part 1 – Introduction

In an earlier post I showed how to determine whether to place a bet on a particular sporting outcome. While the post discussed whether to bet, it didn’t determine how much to bet. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly...